Storm Warning 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 091213
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 9 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 983 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WEAKENS TO 1009 MB
FRI NIGHT AS IT MOVES INLAND 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAKUTAT. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-100300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 9 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-100300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 9 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-100300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 9 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-100300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 9 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-100300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 9 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-100300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 9 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-100300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 9 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-100300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 9 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-100300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 9 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE REASONABLE. FORECAST
TRENDS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. MODELS DIVERGE
BEYOND THIS POINT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SOUTH OF THE BERING
SEA AND LOW APPROACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA. EAST...HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM WILL BE USED IN SHORT TERM...GFS TIMING OF FRONTAL TROUGH INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOOKS BETTER. OUT WEST...GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHOICE. IN ALL...ADJUSTMENTS WILL ONLY BE MADE THROUGH
SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

.UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS/AK PEN MAINTAINS GENERAL POSITION THROUGH SAT. SHORT
WAVE SOUTH OF THE AK PEN MOVES OVER THE NE GULF OF ALASKA FRI
AFTERNOON THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS CANADA. THE RIDGE TENDS TO
BUILD OVER THE MAINLAND ON SUN AS SW FLOW INCREASES OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...970S LOW CENTER SSE OF KODIAK WILL REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY
THIS EVENING THE WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR YAKUTAT FRI AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH ELONGATES EAST UNDER STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION TO HEAD INTO SE ALASKA.
HOWEVER...SOME WARP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO KODIAK TODAY AND
THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION BAND SHIFT EAST FRI
WITH LOW CENTER. STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRI AS LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVE EAST. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF KODIAK ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
FRESH SNOW. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO COLD
TEMPS IN SOUTHCENTRAL INTO THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...BRISK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN DIMINISHES FRI AS GULF LOW MOVES EAST AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS
RELAX. WINDS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS LIKELY TO HOLD WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES OVER 155 AND POSSIBLY 161 THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL AREAS SAT AND
SAT NIGHT AS NEXT LOW CENTER MOVES SOUTH OF THE AK PEN. WIND CHILLS
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE A BIG CONCERN AS WARMING LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY OF
THIS LOW AND NORTH MOVEMENT. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE WITH A FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...GENERAL NORTH TO NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/AK PEN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS NEXT LOW
CENTER MOVES SOUTH OF THE AK PEN SAT AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFICS REMAINS LOW BEYOND
THIS WEEKEND. NATIONAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE ARE STILL HOLDING ONTO
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH SIGNALS A WARMING TREND FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND A COOLING TREND
FOR SOUTHWEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 138 140 132 155 170 179 351 352 412
                        413
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 130 138 140 141 150 160 165 179 185 411
                       412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 09