Gale Warning 54, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE REASONABLE. FORECAST
TRENDS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. MODELS DIVERGE
BEYOND THIS POINT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SOUTH OF THE BERING
SEA AND LOW APPROACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA. EAST...HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM WILL BE USED IN SHORT TERM...GFS TIMING OF FRONTAL TROUGH INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOOKS BETTER. OUT WEST...GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHOICE. IN ALL...ADJUSTMENTS WILL ONLY BE MADE THROUGH
SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

.UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS/AK PEN MAINTAINS GENERAL POSITION THROUGH SAT. SHORT
WAVE SOUTH OF THE AK PEN MOVES OVER THE NE GULF OF ALASKA FRI
AFTERNOON THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS CANADA. THE RIDGE TENDS TO
BUILD OVER THE MAINLAND ON SUN AS SW FLOW INCREASES OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...970S LOW CENTER SSE OF KODIAK WILL REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY
THIS EVENING THE WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR YAKUTAT FRI AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH ELONGATES EAST UNDER STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION TO HEAD INTO SE ALASKA.
HOWEVER...SOME WARP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO KODIAK TODAY AND
THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION BAND SHIFT EAST FRI
WITH LOW CENTER. STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRI AS LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVE EAST. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF KODIAK ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
FRESH SNOW. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO COLD
TEMPS IN SOUTHCENTRAL INTO THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...BRISK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN DIMINISHES FRI AS GULF LOW MOVES EAST AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS
RELAX. WINDS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS LIKELY TO HOLD WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES OVER 155 AND POSSIBLY 161 THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL AREAS SAT AND
SAT NIGHT AS NEXT LOW CENTER MOVES SOUTH OF THE AK PEN. WIND CHILLS
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE A BIG CONCERN AS WARMING LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY OF
THIS LOW AND NORTH MOVEMENT. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE WITH A FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...GENERAL NORTH TO NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/AK PEN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS NEXT LOW
CENTER MOVES SOUTH OF THE AK PEN SAT AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFICS REMAINS LOW BEYOND
THIS WEEKEND. NATIONAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE ARE STILL HOLDING ONTO
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH SIGNALS A WARMING TREND FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND A COOLING TREND
FOR SOUTHWEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 138 140 132 155 170 179 351 352 412
                        413
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 130 138 140 141 150 160 165 179 185 411
                       412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 09