Storm Warning 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

714 
FZAK52 PAFC 020014
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021500-
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 960 MB LOW 475 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH SAT. A 987 MB LOW WILL FORM 600 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA 
THU NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TO 972 MB AS IT MOVES TO 125 NM EAST OF
SHEMYA FRI NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 175 NM WEST OF SHEMYA 
SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-021500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE
COAST. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-021500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-021500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-021500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-021500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. 


$$

PKZ170-021500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE WIND 25 KT LATE THIS
EVENING. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-021500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE WIND 20 KT LATE THIS
EVENING. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-021500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-021500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-021500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-021500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-021500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY THIS NEW YEARS MORNING...WITH
A LOBE EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS BARROW. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING WITH ANOTHER LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIES ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA AND
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING. A STRONG LOW IS SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. COLD AIR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS MAINLAND AK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH SOME DETAIL
PROVIDED BY THE NAM. THE MID RANGE OF THE FORECAST IS MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EC WHICH HAS SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY WITH RECENT
RUNS. THE GULF TROUGH RECONSOLIDATES INTO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF LATER TODAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEATHER FRONT FROM THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU SPREADS ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE BERING THROUGH FRI. AT THAT POINT THE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING REBUILDS SOUTH AND WEST...PUSHING THE FRONT
BACK TO THE ALEUTIANS DURING THE WEEKEND. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER MAINLAND AK THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...RAIN
AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH GALES AND STORMS. THESE MIXED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SAT WHEN THE BERING RIDGE PUSHES THE
FRONT SOUTH AND SNOW SHOWERS BECOME PREDOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR SW AK...A WEAK SHORT-WAVE WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. A SECOND WAVE WILL
BRING MAINLY CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL THEN COVER THE AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT OVER THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...GENERALLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE REDEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND FRI THROUGH SAT. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT-WAVE...BUT CAN BE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AGAIN AFTER THE
SYSTEM HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. GAP FLOW THROUGH THOMPSON PASS
AND OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA AND RESURRECTION BAY WILL KEEP
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BERING NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ALEUTIANS. CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES WILL MOVE
OVER SW AK IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE AREA.
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE WILL CONTINUE CLEAR AND COLD WITH
PRECIPITATION FROM THE GULF LOW LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 121 129 130 132 138 172 175 179 185
         STORMS 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 129 130 150 160 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS JAN 09