Brisk Wind Advisory 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST WED DEC 31 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THE GFS/NAM ARE THE MODELS USED IN
THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA STRETCHING
TO THE WEST OVER RUSSIA. A BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE STATE EXTENDING
DOWN OVER THE PANHANDLE AND INTO CANADA. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY A BROAD TROUGH ROTATING IN FROM
THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST SUPPORTS A FAIRLY
INTENSE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
WHILE AN ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND ENTERS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTENSIFYING.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH COLD CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM MAINLY OVER THE MATANUSKA VALLEY
AND DOWN OVER ANCHORAGE BOWL. A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY SHOULD BRING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BUT DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE AFERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS.
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIANT ALONG THE GULF COAST STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THOMPSON PASS AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AS THE GULF LOW WEAKENS SOME.

SOUTHWEST....CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH LITTLE WIND THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP COLD AIR...LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG OVER MOST OF THE BERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY WILL BRING STRONG WIND AND RAIN TO MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS
SPREADING EAST ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE BERING INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SOUTHWEST ALASKA REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING SNOW TO
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GULF COAST BEFORE RETREATING BACK INTO THE GULF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 121 129 150 172 175
         STORMS 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 08