Small Craft Advisory 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

515 
FZAK51 PAFC 020003
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021500-
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1003 MB LOW 150 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS IT STRENGTHENS TO 993 MB FRI MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE TO NEAR CAPE SUCKLING FRI EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE ON SAT. 
$$

PKZ120-021500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.   

$$

PKZ121-021500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-021500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-021500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ130-021500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-021500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-021500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-021500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-021500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 021246
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-030300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WILL DISSIPATE 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT SAT. A 985 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP SAT MORNING 250
NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT AND RAPIDLY MOVE TO 100 NM WEST OF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS AR 976 MB SAT NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-030300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-030300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-030300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-030300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-030300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-030300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-030300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-030300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY S OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY S OF KALGIN
ISLAND. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY S OF KALGIN ISLAND.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-030300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY THIS NEW YEARS MORNING...WITH
A LOBE EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS BARROW. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING WITH ANOTHER LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIES ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA AND
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING. A STRONG LOW IS SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. COLD AIR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS MAINLAND AK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH SOME DETAIL
PROVIDED BY THE NAM. THE MID RANGE OF THE FORECAST IS MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EC WHICH HAS SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY WITH RECENT
RUNS. THE GULF TROUGH RECONSOLIDATES INTO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF LATER TODAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEATHER FRONT FROM THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU SPREADS ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE BERING THROUGH FRI. AT THAT POINT THE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING REBUILDS SOUTH AND WEST...PUSHING THE FRONT
BACK TO THE ALEUTIANS DURING THE WEEKEND. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER MAINLAND AK THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...RAIN
AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH GALES AND STORMS. THESE MIXED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SAT WHEN THE BERING RIDGE PUSHES THE
FRONT SOUTH AND SNOW SHOWERS BECOME PREDOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR SW AK...A WEAK SHORT-WAVE WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. A SECOND WAVE WILL
BRING MAINLY CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL THEN COVER THE AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT OVER THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...GENERALLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE REDEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND FRI THROUGH SAT. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT-WAVE...BUT CAN BE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AGAIN AFTER THE
SYSTEM HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. GAP FLOW THROUGH THOMPSON PASS
AND OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA AND RESURRECTION BAY WILL KEEP
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BERING NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ALEUTIANS. CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES WILL MOVE
OVER SW AK IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE AREA.
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE WILL CONTINUE CLEAR AND COLD WITH
PRECIPITATION FROM THE GULF LOW LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 121 129 130 132 138 172 175 179 185
         STORMS 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 129 130 150 160 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS JAN 09