Storm Warning 225, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 061243
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-070300-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN BERING BY SAT NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT FROM A LOW IN EASTERN
RUSSIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-070300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 18
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 13
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-070300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-070300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-070300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-070300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 9
FT...EXCEPT 13 FT W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT W OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-070300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 25 FT BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE.

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT BERING SIDE...10 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT BERING SIDE...10 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-070300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-070300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 16 FT.

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-070300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-070300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-070300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-070300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW COVERS OUR CORNER OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN CENTER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A LOBE
EXTENDING OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE EASTERN BERING. A WEAK RIDGE IS
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND A BLOCKING RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS THE ARCTIC COAST. AT
THE SURFACE...FEATURES HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A 948 MB LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS LOW EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN BERING TO ALBERTA AND
FROM THE ARCTIC NORTH OF BARROW AS FAR SOUTH AS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW COVERS THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS...WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS AGREE THAT THE GULF LOW WILL REACH ITS STRONGEST INTENSITY
THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AT THAT TIME A LOW THAT DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND
THEN FORM AN ELONGATED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE. THE
FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON THE NAM/GFS IN THE SHORT TERM FOR
DETAIL...THE EC THROUGH THE MID RANGE AND A BLEND OF EC AND HPC
GUIDANCE IN THE LONG RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH FRI AND OVER BRISTOL BAY
THROUGH SAT. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN AKPEN THROUGH EARLY FRI.
WINDS OVER THE BERING WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL REACH THE EASTERN BERING DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...DRY AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH
RAIN AND SNOW LIMITED TO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.
AS THE GULF LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
END BY FRI. CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
ALOFT WILL KEEP INLAND AREAS GENERALLY DRY AND COASTAL AREAS IN RAIN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL WIND AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW IN THE GULF WEAKENS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST A PAIR OF WEATHER FRONTS BRING RAIN AND
STRONG WIND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEAST OF THE AK
RANGE WILL HAVE SHOWERS ENDING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BENEATH WEAK
RIDGING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181 185
MARINE...STORMS...132 150 155 165 170 171 179
         GALES...120 130 138 160 180 172 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS NOV 09