Small Craft Advisory 897, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALL MODELS KEEP THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW OVER THE GULF AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN IT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT POINT, THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. NAM
WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL TODAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE STATIONARY UPPER LOW COVERS MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LOW,
OVER BRISTOL BAY, MOVING SOUTHEAST. A WEAK RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND A BLOCKING RIDGE REMAINS OVER
WESTERN CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE SURFACE LOW, CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA, COVERS ALL OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND MOST OF THE BERING SEA.
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW COVERS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...WITH
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE STATIONARY LOW IN THE GULF
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO ABOUT 987 MB SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG EAST
WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND AND SURROUNDING
WATERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON
SATURDAY. AREAS OF RAIN OVER THE GULF, CENTRAL GULF COAST AND KODIAK
ISLAND WILL BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE COLDER, DRIER
AIR FROM THE INTERIOR IN THE AREA. SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
WILL CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY.

BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...THE SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE EASTERN BERING SATURDAY
THEN FLATTEN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE DOMINANT LOW IN THE GULF WEAKENS. STRONGER WIND THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL END FROM THE WEST
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC SATURDAY WILL SWING NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY MONDAY.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
SIBERIA SATURDAY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY AND
WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE AKPEN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
MARINE...STORM...150 155
         GALE...120 132 160 170 171 172 179 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 09