Small Craft Advisory 896, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW COVERS OUR CORNER OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN CENTER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A LOBE
EXTENDING OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE EASTERN BERING. A WEAK RIDGE IS
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND A BLOCKING RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS THE ARCTIC COAST. AT
THE SURFACE...FEATURES HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A 948 MB LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS LOW EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN BERING TO ALBERTA AND
FROM THE ARCTIC NORTH OF BARROW AS FAR SOUTH AS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW COVERS THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS...WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS AGREE THAT THE GULF LOW WILL REACH ITS STRONGEST INTENSITY
THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AT THAT TIME A LOW THAT DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND
THEN FORM AN ELONGATED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE. THE
FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON THE NAM/GFS IN THE SHORT TERM FOR
DETAIL...THE EC THROUGH THE MID RANGE AND A BLEND OF EC AND HPC
GUIDANCE IN THE LONG RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH FRI AND OVER BRISTOL BAY
THROUGH SAT. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN AKPEN THROUGH EARLY FRI.
WINDS OVER THE BERING WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL REACH THE EASTERN BERING DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...DRY AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH
RAIN AND SNOW LIMITED TO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.
AS THE GULF LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
END BY FRI. CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
ALOFT WILL KEEP INLAND AREAS GENERALLY DRY AND COASTAL AREAS IN RAIN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL WIND AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW IN THE GULF WEAKENS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST A PAIR OF WEATHER FRONTS BRING RAIN AND
STRONG WIND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEAST OF THE AK
RANGE WILL HAVE SHOWERS ENDING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BENEATH WEAK
RIDGING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181 185
MARINE...STORMS...132 150 155 165 170 171 179
         GALES...120 130 138 160 180 172 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS NOV 09