Storm Warning 201, NWS Anchorage, AK

454 
FZAK62 PAFC 181738 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-190300-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 960 MB HURRICANE FORCE LOW AT 48N 161E WILL MOVE TO 55N 171E AT 949
MB EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE TO 57N 175E AT 963 MB FRIDAY
MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING ON
THURSDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING ON FRIDAY.
$$

PKZ411-190300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 TO 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 60 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 55 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 33 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 38 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 37 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-190300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 TO 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-190300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 TO 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 35 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 37 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-190300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT...STRONGEST EAST. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 190013
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-191500-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 951 MB LOW NEAR 51N 165E STRENGTHENS TO 948 MB NEAR 56N 173E THU
MORNING. THE LOW THEN WEAKENS TO 962 MB NEAR 57N 178E FRI AFTERNOON.
AN ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BERING ON THU AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING ON FRI. 

$$

PKZ411-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 23 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 36 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 36 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 30 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 24 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 32 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
245 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A COLD WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER MAINLAND AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND
WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS AMPLIFYING
RIDGE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE STRONG LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL POTENT MESO
LOWS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE
NORTHERN GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM AND LOCAL WRF ARE HANDLING THE MESO
LOWS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR EUROPEAN BUT AS FOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES NO
REAL DIFFERENCES UNTIL 84 HOURS. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE JET AND MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN THE TIMING...IT BEING A
BIT TOO FAST...SO WILL BE WEIGHTING THE MIDTERM FORECAST HEAVIER
TOWARD THE ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL AND GULF OF ALASKA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE MAINLAND AND THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND THOMPSON PASS WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL FINALLY
RELAX AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...THE MAIN
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTH AGAIN...JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS
TRACK WILL ENSURE THAT THE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE CHANNELED AREAS INCLUDING PASSAGE CANAL AND
RESURRECTION BAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND ICE CRYSTALS.

ON FRIDAY...A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FILTERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL READINGS...AND ALSO RETURN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT
THIS TIME...THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA WILL
BE THIS WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE FORECAST IN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. ON FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT APPROACH THE
BRISTOL BAY COAST AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA...BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW BACK TO THE REGION. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL LIMIT HOW FAR ONSHORE THE SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS OUT WEST. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS
IN ITS EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT EAST OF JAPAN. THIS LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 947 MB NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF AN INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED JET WILL TAP INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 65
KT WINDS OVER A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WESTERN
BERING. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FOR
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH POSSIBLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 191
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 170
         STORMS 175 185
         GALES 120 128 129 130 132 150 150 155 160 165 170 172 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 129 130 140 150 160 165 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB NOV 09