Gale Warning 874, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 181315 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

CORRECTED ZONES 121 125 132 138 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 982 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE TO NEAR TO 85 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EJECT
SOUTH INTO THE NE PACIFIC THURSDAY MORNING.  A 983 MB LOW WILL MOVE
TO 130 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ON FRIDAY.
$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. EXCEPT N WIND 30 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE. 
SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. EXCEPT N WIND 30 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. EXCEPT N WIND 30 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT GUSTING 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT GUSTING 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT GUSTING 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW WIND 40 KT NORTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW WIND 40 KT NORTH OF DANGEROUS
CAPE. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NW WIND 35 KT NORTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
245 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A COLD WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER MAINLAND AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND
WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS AMPLIFYING
RIDGE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE STRONG LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL POTENT MESO
LOWS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE
NORTHERN GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM AND LOCAL WRF ARE HANDLING THE MESO
LOWS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR EUROPEAN BUT AS FOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES NO
REAL DIFFERENCES UNTIL 84 HOURS. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE JET AND MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN THE TIMING...IT BEING A
BIT TOO FAST...SO WILL BE WEIGHTING THE MIDTERM FORECAST HEAVIER
TOWARD THE ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL AND GULF OF ALASKA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE MAINLAND AND THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND THOMPSON PASS WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL FINALLY
RELAX AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...THE MAIN
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTH AGAIN...JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS
TRACK WILL ENSURE THAT THE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE CHANNELED AREAS INCLUDING PASSAGE CANAL AND
RESURRECTION BAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND ICE CRYSTALS.

ON FRIDAY...A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FILTERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL READINGS...AND ALSO RETURN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT
THIS TIME...THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA WILL
BE THIS WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE FORECAST IN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. ON FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT APPROACH THE
BRISTOL BAY COAST AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA...BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW BACK TO THE REGION. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL LIMIT HOW FAR ONSHORE THE SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS OUT WEST. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS
IN ITS EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT EAST OF JAPAN. THIS LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 947 MB NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF AN INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED JET WILL TAP INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 65
KT WINDS OVER A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WESTERN
BERING. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FOR
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH POSSIBLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 191
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 170
         STORMS 175 185
         GALES 120 128 129 130 132 150 150 155 160 165 170 172 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 129 130 140 150 160 165 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB NOV 09