Small Craft Advisory 939, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 181315
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-190300-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 960 MB HURRICANE FORCE STORM LOW 580NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE
TO 160 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU AT 949 MB EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
MOVE TO 280 NM NORTH OF ATTU AT 963 MB FRIDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY
AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING ON FRIDAY.
$$

PKZ150-190300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-190300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-190300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-190300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT
MOLLER. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS
13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-190300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH 

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-190300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT....STRONGEST EAST OF UNALASKA. SEAS 11 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-190300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.

.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-190300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-190300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 55 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 27 FT BUILDING TO 35 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 40 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 36 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-190300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 32 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 43 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 43 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-190300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. SNOW
AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-190300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
245 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A COLD WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER MAINLAND AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND
WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS AMPLIFYING
RIDGE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE STRONG LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL POTENT MESO
LOWS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE
NORTHERN GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM AND LOCAL WRF ARE HANDLING THE MESO
LOWS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR EUROPEAN BUT AS FOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES NO
REAL DIFFERENCES UNTIL 84 HOURS. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE JET AND MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN THE TIMING...IT BEING A
BIT TOO FAST...SO WILL BE WEIGHTING THE MIDTERM FORECAST HEAVIER
TOWARD THE ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL AND GULF OF ALASKA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE MAINLAND AND THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND THOMPSON PASS WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL FINALLY
RELAX AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...THE MAIN
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTH AGAIN...JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS
TRACK WILL ENSURE THAT THE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE CHANNELED AREAS INCLUDING PASSAGE CANAL AND
RESURRECTION BAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND ICE CRYSTALS.

ON FRIDAY...A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FILTERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL READINGS...AND ALSO RETURN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT
THIS TIME...THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA WILL
BE THIS WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE FORECAST IN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. ON FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT APPROACH THE
BRISTOL BAY COAST AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA...BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW BACK TO THE REGION. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL LIMIT HOW FAR ONSHORE THE SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS OUT WEST. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS
IN ITS EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT EAST OF JAPAN. THIS LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 947 MB NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF AN INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED JET WILL TAP INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 65
KT WINDS OVER A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WESTERN
BERING. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FOR
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH POSSIBLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 191
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 170
         STORMS 175 185
         GALES 120 128 129 130 132 150 150 155 160 165 170 172 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 129 130 140 150 160 165 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB NOV 09