Storm Warning 180, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 202331
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211400-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A LARGE HIGH OVER WESTERN PACIFIC COMBINED WITH THE INTENSE STORM
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HAS SET UP A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
BERING SEA AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ150-211400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-211400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-211400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-211400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-211400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-211400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-211400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-211400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-211400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-211400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-211400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-211400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
330 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN GULF
CONTINUES TO BUILD A LITTLE AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BERING SEA EXTENDS A WEAK TROUGH EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND THE COOK INLET. A RIDGE LIES OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE...AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM 750 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. A LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS IS WEAKENING
RAPIDLY. A RIDGE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE
TROUBLE COMING TO A COMMON SOLUTION OVER THE GULF THURSDAY. THE
DISCORD IS WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF FRONTAL
WAVES MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. HPC PREFERS THE GFS MODEL THROUGH
THE MID TERM PERIOD AND THAT IS THE MODEL WE WILL FOLLOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE COOK INLET WILL MOVE
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY. A
LARGE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTH AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE
TUESDAY AND WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF AND
KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WIND AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS. RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TONIGHT THE TUESDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE ONSHORE
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY. RAIN ALONG THE COAST WILL CHANGE
TO SHOWERS AND SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A NEW LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA THURSDAY AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120, 130, 132, 138, 150, 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 09