Storm Warning 170, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 202308
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-211400-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 968 MB LOW NEAR 50N 148W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 54N 155W AND WEAKEN TO
971 MB THU AFTERNOON. A 988 MB LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TUE NIGHT
WILL MOVE TO NEAR 57N 145W AND STRENGTHEN TO 966 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-211400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-211400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 211148
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 21 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-220200-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 971 MB LOW NEAR 53N 143W WILL MOVE TO 58N 142W AT 983 MB LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DISSIPATE. A 974 MB LOW NEAR 55N 152W WILL MOVE
TO 55N 160W AT 978 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE. A 970 MB LOW
WILL MOVE TO 56N 147W THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR 58N
149W AT 963 MB FRIDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ351-220200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-220200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 21 2009

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
330 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN GULF
CONTINUES TO BUILD A LITTLE AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BERING SEA EXTENDS A WEAK TROUGH EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND THE COOK INLET. A RIDGE LIES OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE...AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM 750 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. A LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS IS WEAKENING
RAPIDLY. A RIDGE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE
TROUBLE COMING TO A COMMON SOLUTION OVER THE GULF THURSDAY. THE
DISCORD IS WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF FRONTAL
WAVES MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. HPC PREFERS THE GFS MODEL THROUGH
THE MID TERM PERIOD AND THAT IS THE MODEL WE WILL FOLLOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE COOK INLET WILL MOVE
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY. A
LARGE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTH AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE
TUESDAY AND WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF AND
KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WIND AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS. RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TONIGHT THE TUESDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE ONSHORE
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY. RAIN ALONG THE COAST WILL CHANGE
TO SHOWERS AND SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A NEW LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA THURSDAY AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120, 130, 132, 138, 150, 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 09