Gale Warning 740, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
330 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN GULF
CONTINUES TO BUILD A LITTLE AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BERING SEA EXTENDS A WEAK TROUGH EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND THE COOK INLET. A RIDGE LIES OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE...AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM 750 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. A LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS IS WEAKENING
RAPIDLY. A RIDGE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE
TROUBLE COMING TO A COMMON SOLUTION OVER THE GULF THURSDAY. THE
DISCORD IS WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF FRONTAL
WAVES MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. HPC PREFERS THE GFS MODEL THROUGH
THE MID TERM PERIOD AND THAT IS THE MODEL WE WILL FOLLOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE COOK INLET WILL MOVE
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY. A
LARGE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTH AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE
TUESDAY AND WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF AND
KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WIND AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS. RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TONIGHT THE TUESDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE ONSHORE
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY. RAIN ALONG THE COAST WILL CHANGE
TO SHOWERS AND SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A NEW LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA THURSDAY AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120, 130, 132, 138, 150, 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 09