Small Craft Advisory 936, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1210 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT OVERALL.  BY
EARLY WED MORNING WITH DEVELOPING LOW IN NORTH PACIFIC MOVING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...GFS IS INITIALLY 3 TO 5 MB DEEPER AND 200 MILES
TO THE NORTHEAST.  BY EARLY THU MORNING NAM IS 10 MB DEEPER AND
REMAINS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GULF IS GENERATING COLD AIR OVER
THE STATE WITH SOME MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS IN GAPS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...DISSIPATING WEATHER FRONT WILL INTO MOVE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INTO EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUE.  THIS WILL PRODUCE
SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES EAST OF 175W WITH LESS WIND. SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVER REGION UNTIL WED MORNING WHEN NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS.  EXPECT STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

SOUTHWEST...LITTLE CHANGE FROM CURRENT WEATHER...MOSTLY CLEAR AND
COLD WITH SOME AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.

SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH VARIOUS LOWS SPINNING AROUND IN THE GULF
CONTINUED NORTH FLOW WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.  NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE TERRAIN GAPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE. EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE MAJOR ISSUE IS THE DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN BERING ON WED AFTERNOON.  EXPECT STRONG WINDS WED THROUGH FRI
MORNING IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.  WEAKENING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY FRI MORNING. CLOUDS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST ZONES. GFS
HINTING AT A LEE SIDE LOW FORMING IN WESTERN GULF ON FRI...BUT HAVE
MINIMAL CONFIDENCE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IN SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH THU NIGHT...POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND WARMING ON FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 150 172 175 176 179 185 130 132
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP NOV 09