Gale Warning 871, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 172345
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
245 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

UPDATED FOR SAM

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180300-
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 984 MB LOW 270 NM SOUTH OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER WILL MOVE TO 150 NM
SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING AT 981 MB WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE TO
MOVE 280 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN PRESSURE.

$$

PKZ120-180300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. EXCEPT N WIND 25 GUSTING 40 KT WEST OF CAPE
CLEARE THIS MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-180300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT GUSTING 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT GUSTING 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-180300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-180300-
PASSAGE CANAL
800 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND WED...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-180300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
800 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTING 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTING 35 KT OUT OF BAY AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-180300-
KACHEMAK BAY
800 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 180006
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181500-
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 989 MB LOW 75 NM SOUTHWEST OF SEWARD WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 982 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE 
TO NEAR TO 280 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 986 MB
AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ120-181500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-181500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-181500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
40 KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-181500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING 
SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-181500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN 
ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-181500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER-LVLS A TROF IS DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. AN UPPER-LOW IS PRESENT OVER THE FAR
WESTERN BERING AND NORTHERN GULF...WITH AN UPPER-RIDGE BEING PINCHED
OFF OVER THE NE BERING. AT THE SURFACE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE GULF IS ROTATING NORTHWEST. A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS AND WEAKENING. A SURFACE HIGH IS STAMPED
ACROSS THE KUSKOWIM VALLEY BLEEDING ARCTIC AIR FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND
AK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ADEQUATELY CAPTURE THE MAJOR FEATURES IN THE AOR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE WAVE OVER THE SE GULF WILL MOVE NW INTO THE N
GULF BUT NOT MAKE MUCH MORE HEADWAY NORTH THAN MIDDLETON ISLAND
BEFORE ROTATING BACK SOUTH. THE UPPER-LOW SLIPPING SOUTH OFF THE
KENAI PENINSULA HELPING ROTATE THIS SYSTEM AROUND. AND THOUGH THE
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED COMPLEX WILL EXIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE LIONS SHARE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER
THE GULF. IN THE WEST...THE FRONT IN THE BERING WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN TODAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FEATURE
NEAR DUTCH HARBOR QUICKLY EJECTING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC AND AWAY
FROM THE AOR. A STORM FORCE LOW WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN BERING LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH MODELS DO HAVE SOME TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AS THE MID-RANGE FORECAST PERIOD APPROACHES...THE GENERAL
IDEA IS CAPTURED SATISFACTORILY. THE GFS WAS EMPLOYED FOR THE MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
ONCE AGAIN SOME INLET STRATUS POKING ITS WAY INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
AND ARCTIC AIRMASS TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES. CONDITIONS
REMAINING FAIRLY UNCHANGED HOWEVER...AS STEERING FLOW IN THE GULF
GENERALLY KEEPING THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND CLEAR. THE COLD-ADVECTION
FLOW AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ARCTIC HIGH IN THE
CENTRAL AK INTERIOR AND THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND THE
GULF HELPING WITH MAINTAINING STRONG GAP WINDS...PARTICULARLY THROUGH
THE COPPER RIVER DELTA...THOMPSON PASS AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. IN GENERAL THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STRONG THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THEN ABATE LATE IN
THE WEEK AS IT MOVES AWAY. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG PERIPHERAL AREAS OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BUT THE LOW TRENDING TO STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR
ANY STEADY OR SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION.

.SOUTHWEST...
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVALENT FROM BRISTOL BAY ON UP INTO THE
KUSKOWIM VALLEY...COURTESY OF THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...AND
CONDITIONS REMAINING UNCHANGED UNTIL OUTER MOISTURE FROM BERING LOW
MOVES IN MUCH LATER IN THE WEEK. LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING HOWEVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE AKPEN AROUND THE
LOW IN THE GULF.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
RAIN/SNOW TAPERING TO SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE BERING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STORM FORCE LOW WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING
POTENTIAL HURRICANE WIND-FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS IT CONTINUES TO NOSE EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
COLD-DRY AIRMASS OVER THE MAINLAND STARTS TO GIVE WAY TO SOME
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE STRONG
BERING LOW APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS REMAINING UNSETTLED
OVER THE WESTERN AOR AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH...191
MARINE...STORM...176
         GALE...411 412 413 414 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 175
                180
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...414 121 130 138 140 141

JAM NOV 09