Gale Warning 801, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE REASONABLE AGREEMENT
OVERALL. THE NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE MOVING THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
HEADING TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY A SLOWER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GULF IS GENERATING COLD AIR OVER
THE STATE WITH SOME MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS IN GAPS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...DISSIPATING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INTO EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TUE.  THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES EAST OF 175W WITH
LESS WIND. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER REGION UNTIL WED MORNING WHEN
NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SOUTHWEST...LITTLE CHANGE FROM CURRENT WEATHER...MOSTLY CLEAR AND
COLD WITH SOME AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.

SOUTHCENTRAL...A COMPLEX LOW OVER THE GULF WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORTH
FLOW OVER THE AREA AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE TERRAIN GAPS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE. EXPECT ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE MAJOR ISSUE IS THE DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN BERING ON WED AFTERNOON.  EXPECT STRONG WINDS WED THROUGH FRI
MORNING IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.  WEAKENING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY FRI MORNING. CLOUDS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST ZONES. GFS
HINTING AT A LEE SIDE LOW FORMING IN WESTERN GULF ON FRI...BUT HAVE
MINIMAL CONFIDENCE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IN SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH THU NIGHT...POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND WARMING ON FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 150 172 175 176 179 185 130 132
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP NOV 09