Small Craft Advisory 1008, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1212 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS UKMET AND NAM 12Z RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MAIN WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE IS A
DISSIPATING LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
OVER THE KOMANDORSKI ISLANDS AS IT DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY.  A CENTRAL
PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE AND TO 45N SOUTH OF SAND POINT ON SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WEAKEN.  IT
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IF THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS
VERIFY.

THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF DOES BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW OVER
THE BEAUFORT SEA MOVES SOUTHWARD.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
AIR TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE STATE IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF AND WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL MOVE WEST TO THE GULF OF
ANADYR AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE WEST TO NORTH OF THE MACKENZIE DELTA BY
MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER THE STATE BY MONDAY.  AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA AND FORM A
WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND BY MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
IN THE EAST...
THE INVERSION THAT HAS LOCKED CLOUDS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE COOK INLET REGION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY BE
BROKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. AREAS IN AND ALONG COOK INLET WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
BY SUNDAY. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

OUT WEST...
THE SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
OVER THE KOMANDORSKIES BY SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY WEST OF
COLD BAY. FOGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MAINLAND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF GAP WINDS IN THE USUAL PLACES.  THE ARCTIC UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE TO NEAR DEAD HORSE BY MID WEEK AND BRING COLDER DRY AIR TO
MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. A WEAK CIRCULATION IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF ALASKA SHOULD BRING SOME SNOW AND CLOUDS TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST.

THE BERING SEA AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WITH LIGHT WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 172 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH DEC 09