Gale Warning 959, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 121242
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-130300-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 981 MB LOW NEAR ATTU WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU
AT 1007 MB SUN AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. A COMPLEX AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE 600 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AT 970 MB THROUGH SUN NIGHT. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-130300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-130300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-130300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDENHALL. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-130300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BERING SIDE...VARIABLE 10 KT PACIFIC SIDE.
SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...7 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-130300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-130300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1212 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS UKMET AND NAM 12Z RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MAIN WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE IS A
DISSIPATING LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
OVER THE KOMANDORSKI ISLANDS AS IT DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY.  A CENTRAL
PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE AND TO 45N SOUTH OF SAND POINT ON SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WEAKEN.  IT
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IF THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS
VERIFY.

THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF DOES BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW OVER
THE BEAUFORT SEA MOVES SOUTHWARD.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
AIR TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE STATE IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF AND WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL MOVE WEST TO THE GULF OF
ANADYR AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE WEST TO NORTH OF THE MACKENZIE DELTA BY
MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER THE STATE BY MONDAY.  AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA AND FORM A
WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND BY MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
IN THE EAST...
THE INVERSION THAT HAS LOCKED CLOUDS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE COOK INLET REGION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY BE
BROKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. AREAS IN AND ALONG COOK INLET WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
BY SUNDAY. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

OUT WEST...
THE SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
OVER THE KOMANDORSKIES BY SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY WEST OF
COLD BAY. FOGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MAINLAND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF GAP WINDS IN THE USUAL PLACES.  THE ARCTIC UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE TO NEAR DEAD HORSE BY MID WEEK AND BRING COLDER DRY AIR TO
MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. A WEAK CIRCULATION IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF ALASKA SHOULD BRING SOME SNOW AND CLOUDS TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST.

THE BERING SEA AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WITH LIGHT WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 172 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH DEC 09