Small Craft Advisory 1007, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 121223
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-130300-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF AND SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. 
$$

PKZ120-130300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-130300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-130300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-130300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-130300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-130300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-130300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-130300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-130300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 12 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1212 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS UKMET AND NAM 12Z RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MAIN WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE IS A
DISSIPATING LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
OVER THE KOMANDORSKI ISLANDS AS IT DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY.  A CENTRAL
PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE AND TO 45N SOUTH OF SAND POINT ON SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WEAKEN.  IT
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IF THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS
VERIFY.

THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF DOES BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW OVER
THE BEAUFORT SEA MOVES SOUTHWARD.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
AIR TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE STATE IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF AND WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL MOVE WEST TO THE GULF OF
ANADYR AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE WEST TO NORTH OF THE MACKENZIE DELTA BY
MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER THE STATE BY MONDAY.  AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA AND FORM A
WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND BY MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
IN THE EAST...
THE INVERSION THAT HAS LOCKED CLOUDS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE COOK INLET REGION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY BE
BROKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. AREAS IN AND ALONG COOK INLET WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
BY SUNDAY. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

OUT WEST...
THE SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
OVER THE KOMANDORSKIES BY SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY WEST OF
COLD BAY. FOGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MAINLAND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF GAP WINDS IN THE USUAL PLACES.  THE ARCTIC UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE TO NEAR DEAD HORSE BY MID WEEK AND BRING COLDER DRY AIR TO
MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. A WEAK CIRCULATION IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF ALASKA SHOULD BRING SOME SNOW AND CLOUDS TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST.

THE BERING SEA AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WITH LIGHT WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 172 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH DEC 09