Gale Warning 899, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 281254
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-290300-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 962 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WEAKENS TO 977
MB TONIGHT NEAR CAPE SAINT ELIAS. THIS LOW THEN WEAKENS TO 995 MB SUN
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. IT THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY AND WEAKENS TO 1000 MB SUN NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND.

$$

PKZ120-290300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...WINDS BECOMING E 55 KT THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISHING TO 40
KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT.  RAIN.
.TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING N 40 KT IN THE EVENING THEN W 35 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-290300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT THIS MORNING AND 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-290300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WINDS 35 KT BECOMING NE LATE THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO 50 KT
SOUTH OF SEAL ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO N 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-290300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE EVENING. GUSTS TO 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-290300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 20
FT EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS AND TO 13 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS AND
12 FT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
FREEZING SPRAY EXCEPT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-290300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-290300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-290300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT EXCEPT 5
FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SOUTH
OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
8 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-290300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST FRI NOV 27 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN RUSSIA TO EASTERN AK THIS
MORNING WITH EMBEDDED LOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING AND THE AKPEN. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER SOUTHEAST AK. AT THE SURFACE...SMALL BUT VIGOROUS
LOWS ARE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE SOUTHERN BERING...WITH A
STRONGER LOW NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS. THESE SYSTEMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF AND BERING...AND SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LIES EAST OF THE
PANHANDLE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE ALL COME INTO AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW
OVER THE BARRENS WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
BEYOND. THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND WEST OF
YAKUTAT TODAY. THE SOUTHERN BERING LOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A LOW CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL BE THE NEXT IMPORTANT FEATURE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH SUN. THE FINAL PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM IS A LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN JAPAN WHICH WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL
BERING BY SUN NIGHT...PINWHEELS AROUND THE BERING THROUGH TUE NIGHT
AND THEN REACHES THE BERING STRAIT THU MORNING. THE FORECAST UTILIZES
THE NAM IN THE SHORT TERM FOR DETAIL AND THEN THE GFS/EC THROUGH THE
MID RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT COMING FROM
NORTHERN JAPAN SPREADS RAIN AND STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE BERING
AND ALEUTIANS SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MON...AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW THE LOW WITH STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH TUE.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...DRYING TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SUSITNA AND
PRECIPITATION CUTS OFF EARLY OVER THE AKPEN. WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE
WAY TO SNOW SHOWERS CHANGING TO RAIN AS THE JAPAN FRONT AND LOW MOVE
ACROSS THE BERING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY TUE.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...AS THE BARREN ISLAND LOW MOVES
INLAND EXPECT RAIN ON THE COAST WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MOVING
INLAND TODAY. SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE NEXT LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SAT. RAIN WILL PRECEDE THIS FEATURE FOR COASTAL
AREAS WITH LITTLE PRECIP CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS. RESIDUAL LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SUN NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THAT MAY SEND SNOW INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL. A RIDGE WILL DRY OUT THE AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

A SLOW DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE BERING WITH A WEAK RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE WILL
HAVE RAIN AND SNOW FROM ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT PERSISTING THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORMS 120 130 132
         GALES 125 129 150 155 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS NOV 09