Gale Warning 406, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 152316
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161400-
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1002 MB LOW 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL 
MOVE TO 300 NM EAST OF SITKINAK THU AFTERNOON AT 994 MB AND THEN 
TO 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK FRI AFTERNOON AT 1000 MB.
$$

PKZ120-161400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-161400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-161400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S OF
SEAL ISLAND. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-161400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-161400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 15
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-161400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-161400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-161400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-161400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REVOLVES
AROUND THE LARGE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MULTIPLE LOW
CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW COMPLEX...ACROSS
KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ELSEWHERE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN. THIS LOW IS AT THE BASE OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH CENTERED
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA...EXTENDING INTO THE GULF. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IS LOCATED OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. PROBLEMS ARISE
BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS WHEN TRYING TO PINPOINT THE LOCATION OF
INDIVIDUAL LOW CENTERS WITHIN THE LARGE LOW COMPLEX. THE GFS REMAINS
VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND WAS USED TO CONSTRUCT
THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND
SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AND THURSDAY. AS THE
FRONT DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. AS THESE INDIVIDUAL LOW CENTERS ROTATE WITHIN
THE LARGE COMPLEX...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT COASTAL
LOCATIONS. INLAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST.

.SOUTHWEST...
PRECIPITATION ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND THE AKPEN WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW COMPLEX SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW A CONCERN ACROSS THE AKPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN QUIETING DOWN TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE AKPEN AND
BRISTOL BAY WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO COLD
ADVECTION. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SINCE THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW COMPLEX
WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW COMPLEX WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION. AS THE COMPLEX SLIDES EAST
THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ABATE AND RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEATHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE BEYOND INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND RIDGING
OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. THE RESULT WILL BE RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...WITH CLOUDY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAINLAND. THE LOW COMPLEX IN THE
GULF WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...120 130 138 140 150 155 165 170 171
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH APR 09