Gale Warning 404, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 150004 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

CORRECTED ZONE 180

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-151400-
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 997 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 85 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK TUE NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE WED AS IT 
TRACKS INTO THE PACIFIC. STRONG NORTHERLIES BETWEEN THIS LOW 
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL BERING WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES 
AWAY FROM THE REGION.
$$

PKZ150-151400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT THIS EVENING. WINDS
BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-151400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NW 35 KT THIS EVENING. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-151400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ165-151400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-151400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-151400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-151400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-151400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT EXCEPT N 35 KT WEST OF ATKA. SEAS
17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NW 30 KT WEST OF ATKA. SEAS 13 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-151400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-151400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-151400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-151400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW POSITIONED SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. THIS IS ONE OF MANY CUT-OFF LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC WAVE TRAIN...WHICH HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVE BUT
IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF STALLING AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA IS IN A COL REGION...
WITH A TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA EXITING TO THE ARCTIC AND HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW.

THERE ARE MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS BENEATH THE UPPER LOW SWIRLING
AROUND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS
ALONG THE AKPENN AND THEN EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS FALLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
WITH LITTLE PRECIP AS YOU HEAD INLAND. SURFACE HIGHS EAST AND WEST
OF THE LOW COMPLEX HAVE SET UP TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE GULF AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE
EASTERN BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. BLOWING SNOW IS A THREAT BACK
OVER THE EASTERN BERING REGION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT FREEZING
OR BELOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUBLESOME AREA IS PINPOINTING
INDIVIDUAL LOW POSITIONS WITHIN THE LOW COMPLEX THAT SETS UP SHOP
SOUTH OF THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY ROTATE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...BUT MODELS ARE HAVING THERE USUAL
PROBLEMS WITH THIS SET-UP AND ARE NOT OF MUCH HELP IN THIS.
THEREFORE...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST OVER
THE GULF...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE BACK OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND WILL ROTATE WESTWARD TONIGHT
AROUND THE TOP SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND THEN BACK SOUTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW TRACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THEN STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHEAR APART. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RELEGATE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL
AREAS WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS INLAND. THE LOW COMPLEX WILL SET UP
SHOP JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
AS AN EVOLVING HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN STALLS HEMISPHERIC WAVE
PROGRESSION. MODELS DONT TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE LARGE LOW COMPLEXES
WELL SO IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST EXACT LOW POSITIONS
AND WHERE THE UPPER CENTER MIGHT DECIDE TO RE-CENTER ITSELF. WHAT
WE CAN SAY IS THAT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG
COASTAL AREAS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR INLAND AREAS
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPPER WAVE ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND UP ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE...WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW COMPLEX
MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOCALLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHERE
TEMPERATURES MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE TEENS. AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN COOL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
THE SUN WILL HELP TO WARM THINGS UP NICELY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE IS MOVING INTO
THE TOP OF THE BERING RIDGE...BUT THIS WILL BE A TEMPORARY SQUASHING
OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL QUICKLY RE-BUILD AHEAD OF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
EASTERN ASIA. A VERY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEST
CENTRAL BERING SURFACE HIGH AND THE LOW COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND BLOWING
SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW COMPLEX SETTLES FARTHER EAST. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BERING RIDGE WILL KEEP IT
FROM MAKING MUSH EASTWARD PROGRESSION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF TROUGH OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA AND GULF AND RIDGE OVER THE BERING WILL PERSIST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHICH WILL BE EXPOSED TO STORMS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. LOW COMPLEX/TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...170.
         GALE WARNING...120 130 132 138 155 165 171 175.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 09