Gale Warning 405, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 152313
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161400-
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1018 MB LOW 260 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE 
WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING
THROUGH FRI. A FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE THU 
AND THEN DISSIPATE FRI.

$$

PKZ150-161400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-161400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
40 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-161400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-161400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-161400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-161400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...8 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-161400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-161400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-161400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-161400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-161400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-161400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REVOLVES
AROUND THE LARGE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MULTIPLE LOW
CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW COMPLEX...ACROSS
KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ELSEWHERE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN. THIS LOW IS AT THE BASE OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH CENTERED
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA...EXTENDING INTO THE GULF. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IS LOCATED OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. PROBLEMS ARISE
BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS WHEN TRYING TO PINPOINT THE LOCATION OF
INDIVIDUAL LOW CENTERS WITHIN THE LARGE LOW COMPLEX. THE GFS REMAINS
VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND WAS USED TO CONSTRUCT
THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND
SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AND THURSDAY. AS THE
FRONT DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. AS THESE INDIVIDUAL LOW CENTERS ROTATE WITHIN
THE LARGE COMPLEX...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT COASTAL
LOCATIONS. INLAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST.

.SOUTHWEST...
PRECIPITATION ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND THE AKPEN WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW COMPLEX SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW A CONCERN ACROSS THE AKPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN QUIETING DOWN TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE AKPEN AND
BRISTOL BAY WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO COLD
ADVECTION. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SINCE THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW COMPLEX
WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW COMPLEX WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION. AS THE COMPLEX SLIDES EAST
THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ABATE AND RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEATHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE BEYOND INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND RIDGING
OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. THE RESULT WILL BE RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...WITH CLOUDY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAINLAND. THE LOW COMPLEX IN THE
GULF WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...120 130 138 140 150 155 165 170 171
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH APR 09