Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 142108
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
208 PM MST THU AUG 14 2008

AZC003-142130-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-080814T2130Z/
COCHISE AZ-
205 PM MST THU AUG 14 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM MST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 202 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HEREFORD...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SIERRA VISTA. THIS
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NICKSVILLE AND 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CORONADO NATIONAL MEMORIAL BY
  230 PM MST...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS 
IMMEDIATELY REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE 
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3134 11030 3151 11030 3158 11011 3158 10980
      3134 10977
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 055DEG 0KT 3144 11019

$$

EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 142124
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
224 PM MST THU AUG 14 2008

AZC003-142132-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-080814T2130Z/
COCHISE AZ-
222 PM MST THU AUG 14 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 230 PM MST...

AT 220 PM MST...STORMS HAD WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS ACROSS 
SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS 
POSSIBLE ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

LAT...LON 3134 11030 3151 11030 3158 11011 3158 10980
      3134 10977
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 055DEG 0KT 3141 11024

$$

EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
950 AM MST THU AUG 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND ONCE AGAIN TODAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY WAS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THAT WE
HAVE A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WHICH WILL GRADUALLY THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ALLOWING SOME SUN TO RELOAD THE RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY
LAYER. UPPER AIR PLOTS THIS MORNING PLACED 500 MB HIGH IN NW NEVADA
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER ARIZONA INTO WEST TEXAS
WHERE ANOTHER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODEL
STREAMLINES SHOW THAT AN INVERTED TROF IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
EASTERN SONORA MEXICO WITH NORTHERN EXTENSION INTO COCHISE COUNTY.
CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED WITH THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER. AT
300 MB...PLOTS/STREAMLINES PLACE THE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA
WITH WESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVERHEAD. BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IS WILL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER ENOUGH TO GET
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON AND ROLLING
WEST. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WITH THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE IS HEAVY RAIN AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN SOME SPOTS
RECORDED LAST NIGHT...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS INCREASED.
STILL CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...LIKE WE SAW LAST NIGHT.
TO MAYBE HELP WITH SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF LATER TODAY...WE
WILL HOIST UP A SPECIAL 18Z BALLOON. AT THIS TIME THE POP FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS
OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING MORE
MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKES ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND PUSH
TO OUR SOUTH BY FRIDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOWLY ESTABLISH
ITSELF SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
MOISTURE. WILL GO WITH LOWER GRADE MONSOON TYPE FORECAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS AND A GRADUAL
REDUCTION THEREAFTER TO SLIGHT CHANCES AREAWIDE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
809 AM MST THU AUG 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NE TUCSON             32.28N 110.89W
08/13/2008                   PIMA               AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            1.5FT OF FLOWING WATER IN ALAMO WASH AT GLENN AVE. WATER
            LEVEL ROSE 1.5FT IN 10 MINUTES. PIMA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL
            STREAM GAGE.

1135 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NE TUCSON             32.28N 110.89W
08/13/2008                   PIMA               AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            AT LEAST 2FT OF WATER FLOWING IN ALAMO WASH AT GLENN AVE.
            WASH RECEEDED THROUGH 1030PM BEFORE RISING ANOTHER 1.5FT
            IN ONE HOUR FROM A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. PIMA
            COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL STREAM GAGE.

&&

PYTLAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
138 PM MST THU AUG 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             2 E CORONADO NATIONAL M 31.35N 110.21W
08/14/2008  M0.50 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED LARGE QUANTITIES OF MARBLE SIZE
            HAIL

&&

BTURNER