Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 142202
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
302 PM MST THU AUG 14 2008

AZC003-142315-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0069.000000T0000Z-080814T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
302 PM MST THU AUG 14 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 254 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING MODERATE RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR RUCKER CANYON...OR 33 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
DOUGLAS...MOVING EAST AT 6 MPH. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT OVER 2 
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN RUCKER CANYON.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3176 10981 3183 10924 3165 10921 3150 10969

$$

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 142320
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
420 PM MST THU AUG 14 2008

AZC003-142329-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0069.000000T0000Z-080814T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
420 PM MST THU AUG 14 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...
AT 415 PM MST...SHOWERS HAD MOVED OUT OF THE WARNING AREA. LOCATIONS 
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WERE STILL QUITE ACTIVE WITH ADDITIONAL 
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING.


LAT...LON 3176 10981 3183 10924 3165 10921 3150 10969

$$

MEYER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
950 AM MST THU AUG 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND ONCE AGAIN TODAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY WAS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THAT WE
HAVE A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WHICH WILL GRADUALLY THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ALLOWING SOME SUN TO RELOAD THE RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY
LAYER. UPPER AIR PLOTS THIS MORNING PLACED 500 MB HIGH IN NW NEVADA
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER ARIZONA INTO WEST TEXAS
WHERE ANOTHER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODEL
STREAMLINES SHOW THAT AN INVERTED TROF IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
EASTERN SONORA MEXICO WITH NORTHERN EXTENSION INTO COCHISE COUNTY.
CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED WITH THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER. AT
300 MB...PLOTS/STREAMLINES PLACE THE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA
WITH WESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVERHEAD. BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IS WILL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER ENOUGH TO GET
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON AND ROLLING
WEST. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WITH THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE IS HEAVY RAIN AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN SOME SPOTS
RECORDED LAST NIGHT...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS INCREASED.
STILL CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...LIKE WE SAW LAST NIGHT.
TO MAYBE HELP WITH SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF LATER TODAY...WE
WILL HOIST UP A SPECIAL 18Z BALLOON. AT THIS TIME THE POP FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS
OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING MORE
MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKES ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND PUSH
TO OUR SOUTH BY FRIDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOWLY ESTABLISH
ITSELF SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
MOISTURE. WILL GO WITH LOWER GRADE MONSOON TYPE FORECAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS AND A GRADUAL
REDUCTION THEREAFTER TO SLIGHT CHANCES AREAWIDE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
138 PM MST THU AUG 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             2 E CORONADO NATIONAL M 31.35N 110.21W
08/14/2008  M0.50 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED LARGE QUANTITIES OF MARBLE SIZE
            HAIL

&&

BTURNER