Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 040029
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
529 PM MST THU JUL 3 2008

AZC019-021-040100-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080704T0100Z/
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
527 PM MST THU JUL 3 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PINAL AND NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...

AT 518 PM MST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BIOSPHERE 
2...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORO VALLEY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ORACLE
JUNCTION...SADDLEBROOKE...MOUNT LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN...CATALINA...
SABINO CANYON...DOVE MOUNTAIN...CATALINA STATE PARK AND CATALINA
FOOTHILLS

LAT...LON 3225 11090 3249 11121 3280 11069 3270 11046
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 036DEG 9KT 3251 11085

$$

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 040101
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
601 PM MST THU JUL 3 2008

AZC019-021-040111-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080704T0100Z/
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
601 PM MST THU JUL 3 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PINAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND IS NO LONGER SEVERE. 

LAT...LON 3225 11090 3249 11121 3280 11069 3270 11046
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 036DEG 9KT 3251 11085

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST THU JUL 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF US INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW AROUND THIS ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL GENERATE A DAILY CYCLE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO START THE AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVELS
AND MUCH BETTER SHEAR PROFILE HAS PROVIDED A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MID LEVEL WARMING TREND
EVIDENT BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO MODERATE...BUT AREAS
FROM PIMA COUNTY WESTWARD MAY BE HOLDING ON TO ABOUT -7C AT H5...NOT
THE BEST BUT WE WILL SEE HOW THAT IS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RAMPING UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY BY THIS
EVENING. SHALLOW MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH SONORA UP TO 4K FT DEEP
IN THE NORTHERN GULF. MAY NOT GET MUCH DEEPER IN THE SHORT TERM
(RECENT VWP TRENDS SHOW WEAKENING AT ALL LEVELS) BUT EVERY LITTLE
BIT HELPS. STILL FIGHTING RELATIVELY DRIER UPSTREAM FLOW AT MOST
LEVELS AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE.

TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF WILL TRACK DUE WEST...BUT
WITH MOISTURE INCREASE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE...EXPECT SONORA TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SUPPORT THROUGH DEEPER OUTFLOW AND
DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN WITH
LESS THAN FAVORABLE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WE STILL MAY MANAGE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF US
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW AROUND THIS ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE WILL GENERATE A DAILY CYCLE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG...ERRATIC...AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z FRI...WHERE WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AT TIMES. OUTFLOW WINDS WITH STORMS COULD HAVE
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON