Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 040121
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
621 PM MST THU JUL 3 2008

AZC019-040230-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080704T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
621 PM MST THU JUL 3 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 612 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED
AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAGUARO 
NATIONAL PARK EAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE RINCON MOUNTAINS. THE 
NETWORK OF PIMA COUNTY RAIN GAUGES OVER THE RINCON MOUNTAINS 
INDICATE THAT A TOTAL OF 3.31 INCHES HAS FALLEN AT MANNING CAMP.  
THE FLOOD WATERS WILL LIKELY FLOW INTO BOTH THE RINCON CREEK AND THE 
TANQUE VERDE WASH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS AND RURAL ROADS. 

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
TUCSON.

LAT...LON 3234 11061 3226 11046 3200 11052 3210 11081

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST THU JUL 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF US INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW AROUND THIS ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL GENERATE A DAILY CYCLE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO START THE AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVELS
AND MUCH BETTER SHEAR PROFILE HAS PROVIDED A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MID LEVEL WARMING TREND
EVIDENT BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO MODERATE...BUT AREAS
FROM PIMA COUNTY WESTWARD MAY BE HOLDING ON TO ABOUT -7C AT H5...NOT
THE BEST BUT WE WILL SEE HOW THAT IS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RAMPING UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY BY THIS
EVENING. SHALLOW MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH SONORA UP TO 4K FT DEEP
IN THE NORTHERN GULF. MAY NOT GET MUCH DEEPER IN THE SHORT TERM
(RECENT VWP TRENDS SHOW WEAKENING AT ALL LEVELS) BUT EVERY LITTLE
BIT HELPS. STILL FIGHTING RELATIVELY DRIER UPSTREAM FLOW AT MOST
LEVELS AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE.

TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF WILL TRACK DUE WEST...BUT
WITH MOISTURE INCREASE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE...EXPECT SONORA TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SUPPORT THROUGH DEEPER OUTFLOW AND
DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN WITH
LESS THAN FAVORABLE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WE STILL MAY MANAGE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF US
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW AROUND THIS ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE WILL GENERATE A DAILY CYCLE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG...ERRATIC...AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z FRI...WHERE WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AT TIMES. OUTFLOW WINDS WITH STORMS COULD HAVE
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON