Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 040354
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
854 PM MST THU JUL 3 2008

AZC019-040401-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-080704T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
854 PM MST THU JUL 3 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA
COUNTY...

VERY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE RINCON MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING 
THE SAGUARO NATIONAL PARK EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 
INCHES OCCURRED AT MANNING CAMP IN THE RINCONS. THE STORMS HAVE NOW 
PUSHED TO THE WEST...THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED. HOWEVER...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE REPLACED BY AN 
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SAME GENERAL AREA. 

LAT...LON 3234 11074 3228 11046 3181 11072 3179 11110
      3198 11103

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST THU JUL 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF US INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW AROUND THIS ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL GENERATE A DAILY CYCLE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO START THE AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVELS
AND MUCH BETTER SHEAR PROFILE HAS PROVIDED A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MID LEVEL WARMING TREND
EVIDENT BY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO MODERATE...BUT AREAS
FROM PIMA COUNTY WESTWARD MAY BE HOLDING ON TO ABOUT -7C AT H5...NOT
THE BEST BUT WE WILL SEE HOW THAT IS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RAMPING UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY BY THIS
EVENING. SHALLOW MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH SONORA UP TO 4K FT DEEP
IN THE NORTHERN GULF. MAY NOT GET MUCH DEEPER IN THE SHORT TERM
(RECENT VWP TRENDS SHOW WEAKENING AT ALL LEVELS) BUT EVERY LITTLE
BIT HELPS. STILL FIGHTING RELATIVELY DRIER UPSTREAM FLOW AT MOST
LEVELS AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE.

TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF WILL TRACK DUE WEST...BUT
WITH MOISTURE INCREASE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE...EXPECT SONORA TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SUPPORT THROUGH DEEPER OUTFLOW AND
DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN WITH
LESS THAN FAVORABLE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WE STILL MAY MANAGE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF US
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW AROUND THIS ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE WILL GENERATE A DAILY CYCLE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG...ERRATIC...AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z FRI...WHERE WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AT TIMES. OUTFLOW WINDS WITH STORMS COULD HAVE
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
610 PM MST THU JUL 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 N DOUGLAS             31.46N 109.54W
07/03/2008  M75 MPH          COCHISE            AZ   ASOS

&&

GLADER