Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 072218
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
318 PM MST THU AUG 7 2008

AZC019-072330-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-080807T2330Z/
PIMA AZ-
314 PM MST THU AUG 7 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MST
FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

AT 310 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN 
AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN.  
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CORONA DE 
TUCSON TO SOUTH TUCSON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD 
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CITY. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST 
AND NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BY 340 PM MST...
  NORTH TUCSON BY 400 PM MST...


LAT...LON 3173 11119 3250 11138 3252 11053 3177 11047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 145DEG 10KT 3199 11086 3216 11103

$$

MEYER

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 072334
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
434 PM MST THU AUG 7 2008

AZC019-072342-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-080807T2330Z/
PIMA AZ-
432 PM MST THU AUG 7 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

AT 430 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY INCLUDING THE 
TUCSON METRO AREA...ORO VALLEY...MARANA...AND GREEN VALLEY HAD 
WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. THUS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY HAS EXPIRED.

LAT...LON 3173 11119 3250 11138 3252 11053 3177 11047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 145DEG 10KT 3200 11087 3217 11104

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST THU AUG 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA FOR A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AS STATED
THIS MORNING DURING THE UPDATE...ORGANIZED CONVECTION INITIALLY NEAR
THE BORDER THAT SPREADS INTO MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN PIMA
COUNTIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION DURING AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED ACTION KICKING IN FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES AS WELL. MID SHIFT HAD A NICE TREND SHOWING
THIS...WE PUT OUT A MORNING UPDATE TO TWEAK AND EMPHASIZE THIS A BIT
MORE. ALSO HWO OUT FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY. CONCERN INCLUDES BOTH
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

IF WE DO GO OFF OVER A WIDE ENOUGH AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT (WHICH IS
STARTING TO BE THE CASE)...THE FLOW IS NOT SUCH TO RESET RIGHT
AWAY...SO WOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A DOWN DAY FRIDAY. IF WE DONT HAVE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH CONVECTION THEN FRIDAY SHOULD BE A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DAY. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A GOOD WEEKEND FOR STORMS WITH
A STANDARD FORECAST TO START THE WEEK AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY HANG IN FOR TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG OUTFLOWS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
823 AM MST THU AUG 7 2008

AZZ019-029>035-080700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
823 AM MST THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE RISK HAS INCREASED FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST ACROSS
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE...AND COMBINED WITH EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
ALOFT...THE STORMS TODAY WILL TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR
LINES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AFTER 11 AM...ESPECIALLY OVER SANTA CRUZ AND
COCHISE COUNTIES. THESE WILL THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS THEY MOVE WEST INTO THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM AROUND 1 PM UNTIL AROUND 10
PM...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHICH DAYS WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER EACH MORNING WHICH MAY REDUCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND
WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS EVEN MORE MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK
CORRECTED TYPO IN DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN SECTION

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
137 PM MST THU AUG 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 E TUCSON             32.24N 110.77W
08/06/2008                   PIMA               AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            2 LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN...4-5 FEET LONG ABOUT 6 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER

&&

JMEYER