Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 071928
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1228 PM MST THU AUG 7 2008

AZC003-072045-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0054.000000T0000Z-080807T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
1228 PM MST THU AUG 7 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 1220 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS GENERATING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL 
ACROSS THE WESTERN CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS GENERALLY SOUTH OF 
CHIRICAHUA NATIONAL MONUMENT. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES EXCEEDED 2 
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ABOUT 5 TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF THE 
MONUMENT. EXPECT UP TO 1/2 INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
PINERY CREEK...STANFORD CREEK...WHITEWATER DRAW...WEST WHITETAIL
CREEK...PINE CREEK...TURKEY CREEK...FIVEMILE CREEK...BIG SAND WASH...
LITTLE SAND WASH...ROCK CREEK...EAST WHITETAIL CREEK...EAST TURKEY 
CREEK...CAVE CREEK...ASH CREEK...PRIDHAM CREEK AND WITCH CREEK.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. 
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. DO 
NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN 
DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3179 10959 3209 10947 3201 10928 3178 10928

$$

MEYER

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 072050
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
150 PM MST THU AUG 7 2008

AZC003-072058-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0054.000000T0000Z-080807T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
150 PM MST THU AUG 7 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN CENTRAL 
COCHISE COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE STRONGEST 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...STREAMS AND 
WASHES RUNNING OUT OF THE CHIRICAHUAS ARE LIKELY TO FLOW FOR THE 
REST OF THE AFTERNOON SINCE PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN RECEIVED OVER 2 
INCHES OF RAIN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

LAT...LON 3179 10959 3209 10947 3201 10928 3178 10928

$$

PYTLAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 AM MST THU AUG 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR
A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEEING A LITTLE DRYING WITH EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.42 ON THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING. STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. IMPULSE
FRAGMENT PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
PROVIDE A VERY NICE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION INITIALLY NEAR
THE BORDER THAT SPREADS INTO MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN PIMA
COUNTIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION DURING AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. MID SHIFT HAS A NICE TREND SHOWING THIS...WE PUT
OUT A MORNING UPDATE TO TWEAK AND EMPHASIZE THIS A BIT MORE. ALSO
HWO OUT FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY.

IF WE DO GO OFF OVER A WIDE ENOUGH AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FLOW
IS NOT SUCH TO RESET RIGHT AWAY...SO WOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A DOWN
DAY FRIDAY. IF WE DONT HAVE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH CONVECTION THEN
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM DAY. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A
GOOD WEEKEND FOR STORMS WITH A STANDARD FORECAST TO START THE WEEK
AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HANG IN FOR TYPICAL EARLY
AUGUST WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG OUTFLOWS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
823 AM MST THU AUG 7 2008

AZZ019-029>035-080700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
823 AM MST THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE RISK HAS INCREASED FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST ACROSS
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE...AND COMBINED WITH EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
ALOFT...THE STORMS TODAY WILL TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR
LINES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AFTER 11 AM...ESPECIALLY OVER SANTA CRUZ AND
COCHISE COUNTIES. THESE WILL THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS THEY MOVE WEST INTO THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM AROUND 1 PM UNTIL AROUND 10
PM...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHICH DAYS WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER EACH MORNING WHICH MAY REDUCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND
WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS EVEN MORE MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK
CORRECTED TYPO IN DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN SECTION

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON