Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 072145
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST THU AUG 7 2008

AZC019-072215-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-080807T2215Z/
PIMA AZ-
244 PM MST THU AUG 7 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 238 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED ALONG HIGHWAY 286 5 TO 9 MILES NORTH OF THE JUNCTION WITH 
ARIVACA ROAD...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL SOUTHERN PIMA COUNTY AT 300 PM MST

LAT...LON 3175 11171 3200 11154 3180 11139 3158 11145
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 114DEG 4KT 3178 11149

$$

MEYER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST THU AUG 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA FOR A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AS STATED
THIS MORNING DURING THE UPDATE...ORGANIZED CONVECTION INITIALLY NEAR
THE BORDER THAT SPREADS INTO MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN PIMA
COUNTIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION DURING AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED ACTION KICKING IN FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES AS WELL. MID SHIFT HAD A NICE TREND SHOWING
THIS...WE PUT OUT A MORNING UPDATE TO TWEAK AND EMPHASIZE THIS A BIT
MORE. ALSO HWO OUT FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY. CONCERN INCLUDES BOTH
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

IF WE DO GO OFF OVER A WIDE ENOUGH AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT (WHICH IS
STARTING TO BE THE CASE)...THE FLOW IS NOT SUCH TO RESET RIGHT
AWAY...SO WOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A DOWN DAY FRIDAY. IF WE DONT HAVE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH CONVECTION THEN FRIDAY SHOULD BE A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DAY. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A GOOD WEEKEND FOR STORMS WITH
A STANDARD FORECAST TO START THE WEEK AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY HANG IN FOR TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG OUTFLOWS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
823 AM MST THU AUG 7 2008

AZZ019-029>035-080700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
823 AM MST THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE RISK HAS INCREASED FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST ACROSS
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE...AND COMBINED WITH EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
ALOFT...THE STORMS TODAY WILL TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR
LINES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AFTER 11 AM...ESPECIALLY OVER SANTA CRUZ AND
COCHISE COUNTIES. THESE WILL THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS THEY MOVE WEST INTO THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM AROUND 1 PM UNTIL AROUND 10
PM...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHICH DAYS WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER EACH MORNING WHICH MAY REDUCE DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND
WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS EVEN MORE MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK
CORRECTED TYPO IN DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN SECTION

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
137 PM MST THU AUG 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 E TUCSON             32.24N 110.77W
08/06/2008                   PIMA               AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            2 LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN...4-5 FEET LONG ABOUT 6 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER

&&

JMEYER