Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
653 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE BOWING LINE SEGMENT MOVING TOWARD THE TULSA
METRO AREA HAS BOTH A DAMAGING WIND AND QUICK
SPIN-UP TORNADO THREAT.  WITH LCL VALUES BELOW
1000 FEET AND 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE.  A 2002 CRAVENS AND
BROOKS STUDY SUGGESTS A BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT
TORNADO PROBABILITY WITH ANY MESOCYCLONES
THAT CAN PERSIST IN THAT ENVIRONMENT.

A STRONG LOW-LEVEL VELOCITY COUPLET IS TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN OKMULGEE COUNTY AT THIS TIME
AND WE HAVE ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING.

IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL TORNADO WARNINGS
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS LINE OF STORMS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE TULSA METRO AREA.  ALL INTERESTS
IN THE TULSA METRO AREA SHOULD MOVE TO A HIGH
STATE OF READINESS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
A QUICK TORNADO SPIN UP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
513 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
513 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

...SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
 	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR THE DRY LINE LOCATED NEAR
INTERSTATE 35 IN TEXAS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR TO PRODUCE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MEAN WIND FLOW STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THESE
STORMS WILL EXPAND INTO A LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS THEY
MOVE EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE UPPER LOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW...AND WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND POSE A SLIM TORNADO THREAT.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS MORNINGS THUNDERSTORMS...AND
MORE HEAVY RAIN...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK WILL
PRESENT A THREAT OF FLOODING RAIN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF STATE
HIGHWAY 412.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CAN RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KETCHUM                 36.52N 95.02W
05/07/2008                   CRAIG              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SOME STREET FLOODING. ALSO RURAL ROADS NEAR KETCHUM WERE
            REPORTED UNDER WATER. 3.75 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY.

0415 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S CLEORA              36.54N 94.97W
05/07/2008                   DELAWARE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 85 SOUTH OF CLEORA. SOME AREAS STILL
            FLOODED AT 6 PM.

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     OKEMAH                  35.43N 96.30W
05/07/2008  E60 MPH          OKFUSKEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
656 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 E BEGGS               35.74N 96.00W
05/07/2008  E75 MPH          OKMULGEE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LOCATION NEAR HIGHWAY 75 AND HIGHWAY 16

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
714 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     TSTM WND GST     BIXBY                   35.94N 95.88W
05/07/2008  E60 MPH          TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WALL CLOUD ALSO REPORTED OVER HIGH SCHOOL.

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
718 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N BIXBY               35.97N 95.88W
05/07/2008                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DAMAGE NEAR 101ST AND MEMORIAL

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
724 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW BROKEN ARROW       36.03N 95.82W
05/07/2008  E60 MPH          TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WIND GUSTS AND TREE DAMAGE BEING REPORTED NEAR 111TH AND
            GARNETT

&&

SAA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
725 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

OKZ049-053-080100-
CHOCTAW OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
725 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CHOCTAW AND SOUTHERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 725 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
NORTH OF FALLON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HUGO...SAWYER...FORT
TOWSON...SWINK...MESSER...SOBOL...FALLON...SPEER...APPLE...CORINNE...
RATTAN AND OLETA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3414 9558 3442 9504 3425 9503 3423 9505
      3422 9512 3416 9513 3415 9514 3399 9514
      3391 9546
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 243DEG 66KT 3405 9539