River Flood Warning 75, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WGUS84 KTSA 081934
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
234 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  BIRD CREEK NEAR SPERRY AFFECTING OSAGE AND TULSA COUNTIES. 
  
  BIRD CREEK NEAR OWASSO-MINGO AFFECTING TULSA COUNTY. 
  
  CANEY RIVER NEAR RAMONA AFFECTING WASHINGTON COUNTY. 
  
  CANEY RIVER NEAR COLLINSVILLE AFFECTING ROGERS AND TULSA COUNTIES. 
  
  NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE AFFECTING OTTAWA COUNTY. 
  
  SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW AFFECTING OTTAWA COUNTY. 
  
  ARKANSAS RIVER NEAR MUSKOGEE AFFECTING MUSKOGEE COUNTY. 
  
OKC113-143-090334-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-080509T1422Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.080508T0855Z.080509T0000Z.080509T0822Z.NO/
234 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIRD CREEK NEAR SPERRY.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  200 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.39 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE BIRD CREEK NEAR SPERRY WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 
  24.9 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY
  FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN RURAL AREAS 
  BETWEEN SKIATOOK TO TURLEY.

$$

OKC143-090333-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-080509T1851Z/
/OWSO2.1.ER.080508T1515Z.080509T0600Z.080509T1251Z.NO/
234 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIRD CREEK NEAR OWASSO-MINGO.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  200 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.31 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE BIRD CREEK NEAR OWASSO-MINGO WILL CONTINUE RISING TO
  NEAR 19.0 FEET FRIDAY BEFORE DAWN. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR NEAR MOHAWK PARK.
  56TH STREET NORTH MAY BE IMPASSABLE NEAR MINGO ROAD.

$$

OKC147-090333-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-080509T2030Z/
/RAMO2.1.ER.080508T1207Z.080509T0000Z.080509T1430Z.NO/
234 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE CANEY RIVER NEAR RAMONA.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  100 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.19 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE CANEY RIVER NEAR RAMONA WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR
  27.3 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 28.0 FEET...MODERATE AGRICULTURAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR 
  FROM OCHELATA TO THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF TULSA COUNTY.  SOME RURAL 
  ROADS WILL BE IMPASSABLE INCLUDING THE ROAD BETWEEN RAMONA AND 
  TALALA.

$$

OKC131-143-090333-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-080510T1633Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.080508T0759Z.080509T1200Z.080510T1033Z.NO/
234 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE CANEY RIVER NEAR COLLINSVILLE.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  200 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.43 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE CANEY RIVER NEAR COLLINSVILLE WILL CONTINUE RISING 
  TO NEAR 30.7 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 31.0 FEET...WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING WILL OCCUR.  
  RURAL ROADS NEAR THE CANEY RIVER WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE.

$$

OKC115-090333-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-080511T0927Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.080508T0414Z.080509T1200Z.080511T0327Z.NO/
234 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE.
* UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  100 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.33 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE WILL CONTINUE RISING TO 
  NEAR 20.3 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 21.0 FEET...MODERATE AGRICULTURAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR.  
  SOME ROADS WITHIN RIVERVIEW PARK WILL BE FLOODED INCLUDING STATE 
  HIGHWAY 125 NEAR THE FAIRGROUNDS.

$$

OKC115-090333-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-080510T0542Z/
/QUAO2.2.ER.080508T0802Z.080509T0000Z.080509T2342Z.NO/
234 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW.
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  200 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.77 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW WILL CONTINUE RISING TO 
  NEAR 24.5 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  FRIDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...PARK AND RECREATIONAL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM 
  THE GAGE SITE WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING.

$$

OKC101-090333-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-080509T0800Z/
/MKGO2.1.ER.080508T1330Z.080508T1845Z.080509T0200Z.NO/
234 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ARKANSAS RIVER NEAR MUSKOGEE.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  200 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.43 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING BUT THE RIVER IS FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE ARKANSAS RIVER NEAR MUSKOGEE WILL CONTINUE FALLING 
  TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 29.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR.  A 
  BOATING MARINA NORTH OF OG&E POWER PLANT MAY BE FLOODED.

$$

000 
WGUS84 KTSA 090114
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
814 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008


...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  ARKANSAS RIVER NEAR MUSKOGEE AFFECTING MUSKOGEE COUNTY. 
  
OKC101-090144-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-080509T0800Z/
/MKGO2.1.ER.080508T1330Z.080508T2045Z.080509T0252Z.NO/
814 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ARKANSAS RIVER NEAR MUSKOGEE.
* AT  800 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.30 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE ARKANSAS RIVER NEAR MUSKOGEE WILL CONTINUE FALLING 
  TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 28.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
343 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES A STEADY TRACK EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUING WITHIN THE WRAP AROUND
CLOUD SHIELD. CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE LOW THIS
MORNING THOUGH DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE WELL AFTER SUNRISE OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FRONT RANGE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GENERALLY AGREED UPON
TRACK OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS TO OUR
NORTH AND OUR FORECAST CHANCES WILL CARRY THE SAME NORTH TO SOUTH
GRADIENT. ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER WAVE MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD...AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES A MOVE BACK SOUTHWARD. THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THE
FRONTAL LOCATION WILL BE ON DEWPOINTS WITH A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL BELOW NORMAL.

ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM WEST
TEXAS...ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BETWEEN
SUNRISE SATURDAY TO SUNRISE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS LOCALLY WILL
UNDERGO MEANINGFUL CHANGE DURING THIS PROCESS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. RESULTANT INSTABILITY TRENDS WILL RAMP UPWARD
DURING THE DAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING
INVERSION KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. A
FAVORED AREA FOR INITIAL CONVECTION WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW TRACK THUS HIGHER STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. STORMS WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG ADVANCING DRYLINE PENDING THE OVERALL CAP
STRENGTH. THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
REFINED...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY PROVIDING A FEW PLEASANT AND
DRY DAYS. THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL FEATURES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA BY TUESDAY...WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN
LIKELY A FACTOR GIVEN THE PREVIOUS GULF FRONTAL INTRUSION. THE
UPPER PATTERN BY MID WEEK BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER THE
GENERAL IDEA IS OF DEEP TROUGHING PREVAILING OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WHICH MAY PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK OF TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  59  79  56 /  10  20  10  10
FSM   77  57  83  56 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   77  57  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   75  55  77  55 /  10  30  10  10
FYV   73  53  76  54 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   72  53  74  52 /  20  20  20  10
MKO   76  57  80  57 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   74  55  74  51 /  10  40  20  10
F10   76  57  80  59 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   80  59  86  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
459 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
458 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH BROUGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
YESTERDAY WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WITH
CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST.

ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THERE IS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.  COLD FRONTS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE FRONTS AS WELL. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THERE
WILL BE STRONG INSTABILITY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.