Severe Thunderstorm Warning 523, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
912 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS NERN OK THIS EVENING. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CONTINUES
TO DECREASE AND TREND OF CONVECTION IS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ELEVATED. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE BACK SIDE OF
CONVECTION...NEAR A BLACKWELL TO EL RENO TO FREDERICK LINE...AND
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A SOUTHWARD SURGE. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD HELP THE CONVECTION TO TRANSITION TO A NEARLY SOLID
CONVECTIVE LINE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MORE WIND AND SOME HAIL. DUE TO VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NONZERO
WITH THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SENT UPDATED PRODUCTS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS OF CONVECTION AND EXPECTED FROPA. WILL
LIKELY SEND ADDITIONAL UPDATES FOR WATCH EXPIRATIONS/
CONTINUATIONS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....69

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A DRY LINE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT 5 PM WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND A LOW
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO EXIT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

69

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
948 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     TSTM WND GST     SKIATOOK                36.37N 96.00W
11/05/2008  E60.00 MPH       TULSA              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

0942 PM     HAIL             SKIATOOK                36.37N 96.00W
11/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
950 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             1 NE COLLINSVILLE       36.37N 95.83W
11/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
959 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

OKZ057-058-060430-
CRAIG OK-OTTAWA OK-
959 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1030 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CRAIG AND NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA

AT 959 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOLLOW TO 4 MILES NORTH OF
CENTRAILIA TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CENTRALIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
CENTRALIA...HOLLOW...PYRAMID CORNERS...BLUEJACKET...CENTRAILIA AND
WELCH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9491 3677 9500 3662 9543 3664 9543
      3681 9541 3698 9541 3700 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 0359Z 232DEG 36KT 3699 9535 3687 9532
          3671 9540

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1019 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     HAIL             KIEFER                  35.94N 96.07W
11/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       CREEK              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1029 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE MOUNDS             35.85N 96.02W
11/05/2008  E60.00 MPH       OKMULGEE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

1022 PM     HAIL             3 SE MOUNDS             35.85N 96.02W
11/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       OKMULGEE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1033 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

OKZ057-062-060500-
CRAIG OK-MAYES OK-
1033 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CRAIG AND NORTHERN MAYES

AT 1033 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CENTRALIA TO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WHITE OAK TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG CABIN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS INCLUDE...VINITA...KETCHUM...BIG CABIN...WHITE OAK...
CENTRALIA...PYRAMID CORNERS...BLUEJACKET...CENTRAILIA AND WELCH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

LAT...LON 3694 9500 3652 9501 3646 9543 3652 9543
      3652 9532 3660 9533 3660 9543 3679 9543
      3698 9504
TIME...MOT...LOC 0433Z 246DEG 36KT 3672 9538 3660 9532
          3649 9536