Severe Thunderstorm Warning 513, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
544 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE SEVERE STORM PASSING NORTHWEST OF
TULSA IS MOVING INTO SURFACE-BASED
CAPE OF AROUND 600 J/KG...ABOUT HALF
THE VALUES IT WAS INGESTING 2 HOURS
AGO.  IT WAS ALSO MOVING INTO A ZONE
OF HIGHER LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION.
THESE PARAMETERS ARGUE FOR THE CELL
TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR.  ON
THE SUPPORTIVE SIDE IS THAT THE
HELICITY TO THE LCL IS INCREASING...
SO FOR A TIME THE EVOLUTIONS OF
MESOCYCLONES IN THE CELL COULD STALL
THE WEAKENING.  BUT THE EXPECTED REDUCTION
OF THE SURFACE-BASED CAPE SHOULD ALLOW
A TRANSITION OF THE CELL AND ITS NEIGHBORS
TO ELEVATED STORMS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A DRY LINE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT 5 PM WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND A LOW
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO EXIT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

69

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
552 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             OILTON                  36.08N 96.58W
11/05/2008  E1.00 INCH       CREEK              OK   PUBLIC

0520 PM     TSTM WND GST     OILTON                  36.08N 96.58W
11/05/2008  E60.00 MPH       CREEK              OK   PUBLIC

            BLOWING DEBRIS/ITEMS ACROSS PARKING LOT

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

OKZ064-060045-
CREEK OK-
611 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN CREEK

AT 611 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILFAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BRISTOW...
MILFAY...SLICK AND DEPEW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3599 9639 3577 9623 3564 9649 3564 9662
      3584 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 235DEG 35KT 3569 9668

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

OKZ054>056-060100-
NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
624 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN NOWATA...WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN OSAGE

AT 624 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM HULAH TO DEWEY TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF
BARTLESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...WANN...HULAH...BARTLESVILLE...
DEWEY AND COPAN. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WERE REPORTED AT THE
BARTLESVILLE AIRPORT ABOUT 620 PM.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9552 3696 9550 3665 9601 3678 9602
      3700 9617
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 244DEG 35KT 3695 9600 3682 9592
          3671 9592

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             AVANT                   36.49N 96.06W
11/05/2008  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              OK   PUBLIC

&&

GEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WSW VERA              36.43N 95.93W
11/05/2008  E60.00 MPH       TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

0626 PM     HAIL             3 WSW VERA              36.43N 95.93W
11/05/2008  E1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

0627 PM     HAIL             2 WSW VERA              36.44N 95.91W
11/05/2008  E1.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
639 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

OKZ064-065-060115-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-
639 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE

AT 639 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PADEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PADEN...BOLEY...MASON...
WELTY...BRISTOW...MILFAY...SLICK...DEPEW AND KELLYVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

LAT...LON 3575 9663 3608 9620 3564 9619 3546 9646
      3543 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 235DEG 40KT 3558 9659