Severe Thunderstorm Warning 363, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
451 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...
BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI WEST BACK INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA STILL ACTIVE.  CURRENTLY BIG HAILER IN DELAWARE
COUNTY.  FORECAST CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND BOUNDARIES
AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN THE SHORT TERM
TRIED TO PLAY ONGOING CONVECTION. MORE THUNDER LIKELY TO
IGNITE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST-EAST BOUNDARY NEAR
THE VICINITY OF STATE HIGHWAY 412. HIGHEST POP NORTHEAST.
NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED THIS EVENING..INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY WITH TEMP INTO
LOWER 90S. UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.   NEAR
ZONAL FLOW PUSHES FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NEAR  I-44 BY DARK
TUESDAY.  RE-INTRODUCED PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALLE RIDGE EAST COAST
AND LARGE TROF WEST AFTER WEDNESDAY.   AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PERIOD TO FOLLOW...IF NOT OUR FORECAST AREA... ELSEWHERE
IN THE PLAINS.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  71  93  77 /  50  30  20  10
FSM   91  69  93  73 /  40  30  10  10
MLC   90  72  90  74 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   86  65  93  74 /  50  40  30  10
FYV   86  65  88  72 /  50  40  20  10
BYV   85  63  88  72 /  60  50  20  10
MKO   89  68  92  74 /  40  30  20  10
MIO   84  65  89  73 /  60  50  30  10
F10   91  70  91  73 /  30  20  10  10
HHW   89  69  90  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
513 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
451 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT LIES EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TODAY. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES REMAINING IN THE AREA A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK. LATER IN THE
WEEK A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE IN INFLUENCING THE REGION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

OKZ057-010900-
CRAIG OK-
311 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL CRAIG

AT 311 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CENTRAILIA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...VINITA...CENTRALIA...PYRAMID
CORNERS...BLUEJACKET AND CENTRAILIA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3683 9500 3660 9501 3659 9501 3658 9502
      3670 9541 3688 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 0811Z 283DEG 39KT 3676 9523

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

OKZ058-063-010930-
DELAWARE OK-OTTAWA OK-
350 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA

AT 350 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTH OF AFTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 46 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ZENA...CLEORA...GROVE...BERNICE
AND AFTON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3664 9472 3642 9478 3656 9501 3660 9501
      3660 9500 3677 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 0850Z 304DEG 40KT 3662 9492