Alert archive / Virginia / Tornado Watches in 2008
Tornado Watch 403
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 31, 2008, 3:07 PM EDT for 7 counties in Maryland; 55 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 31, 2008, 3:07 PM EDT (19:07 UTC)
- Expired
- May 31, 2008, 9:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 62 counties
Calvert County, MD, Charles County, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Worcester County, MD, Accomack County, VA, Albemarle County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Highland County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, Nelson County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, York County, VA
The radar
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 40%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 60%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 90%
Warnings issued inside it
19 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 3:11 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Orange, Spotsylvania, Stafford, City of Fredericksburg | 64 min |
| May 31, 3:13 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Fluvanna, Goochland, Hanover, Louisa | 47 min |
| May 31, 3:21 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Dorchester, Wicomico | 54 min |
| May 31, 3:25 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Caroline | 80 min |
| May 31, 3:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Calvert, Charles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's | 75 min |
| May 31, 3:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, King William, Louisa, Powhatan and 1 more | 63 min |
| May 31, 3:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Dorchester | 39 min |
| May 31, 4:09 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | AKQ | Caroline | 20 min |
| May 31, 4:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Caroline, Essex, King and Queen, King William, Richmond, Westmoreland | 63 min |
| May 31, 4:48 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | AKQ | Caroline, Essex, Hanover, King and Queen, King William | 23 min |
| May 31, 5:02 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Hanover, King William | 43 min |
| May 31, 5:10 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | AKQ | King and Queen | 17 min |
| May 31, 5:14 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | King William | 28 min |
| May 31, 5:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | King and Queen, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northumberland, Richmond, Westmoreland | 71 min |
| May 31, 5:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | King and Queen, King William | 18 min |
| May 31, 5:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Accomack | 73 min |
| May 31, 6:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Gloucester, King and Queen, King William, Mathews, Middlesex, New Kent | 52 min |
| May 31, 6:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Northampton | 90 min |
| May 31, 7:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Mathews | 20 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 85 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 658 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -105 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 965 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 145 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 165 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.4
- Supercell composite
- 6.6
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WWUS20 KWNS 311907
SEL3
SPC WW 311907
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-010100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MARYLAND
VIRGINIA
PART OF THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST OF STAUNTON
VIRGINIA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WALLOPS VIRGINIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 402...
DISCUSSION...HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS REGION THIS EVENING AS TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. AIR MASS IS VERY
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING INTO FAR NRN VA/NERN
MD/DE WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE INTO LINES/SUPERCELLS WITH
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...EVANSSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 4:10 AM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Garrett | 6 hr |
| May 31, 8:54 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Cecil, Frederick, Harford and 6 more | 96 min |
| May 31, 10:20 AM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Allegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 11 more | 7 hr |
| May 31, 12:05 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Saint Mary's, Somerset | 55 min |
| May 31, 4:28 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Garrett | 62 min |
| May 31, 4:04 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brunswick, Dinwiddie, Greensville, Isle of Wight, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg and 7 more | 56 min |
| May 31, 4:23 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Appomattox, Brunswick, Campbell, Charlotte, Dinwiddie, Greensville and 23 more | 4 hr |
| May 31, 6:19 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lee | 56 min |
| May 31, 7:37 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Accomack, Brunswick, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Dinwiddie and 36 more | 53 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Virginia, 2008Tornado Watches in Maryland, 2008Every tornado watch in 2008
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.