Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2008

Mesoscale Discussion 1813

July 19, 20084 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 19, 2008, 1:09 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 19, 2008, 1:09 PM CDT (18:09 UTC)
Expired
Jul 19, 2008, 3:15 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 60 counties

Buena Vista County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Ida County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Lyon County, IA, Monona County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Sac County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Webster County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Wright County, IA, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Cottonwood County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Martin County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Rock County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Antelope County, NE, Boyd County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Holt County, NE, Knox County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Bon Homme County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 223 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2008-07-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 708 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2008-07-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 51 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
708 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-114 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
858 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
115 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
3.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 191809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191809 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-192015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...NE NEB...NW IA AND SW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 191809Z - 192015Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SERN SD...SW MN AND SPREAD SEWD INTO NE NEB AND NW IA. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z.

THIS AFTERNOON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PARTIALLY ENHANCED BY MORNING
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM SRN MN WSWWD THROUGH SRN SD MOVING SLOWLY
SEWD. THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS DESTABILIZING WITH 7-7.5 C/KM
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ABOVE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO WARM WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER NEB
AND SERN SD TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER MN AND IA. LATEST VISIBLE AND
RADAR DATA SHOW CONVECTION INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM SW MN
INTO SERN SD. STORMS DEVELOPING SO FAR APPEAR SHALLOW AND SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED. ACARS AND FORECAST ROAB DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION
NEAR 700 MB. COMPLICATING FACTOR IS TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN MN
TO REMAIN NORTH OF WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 80S...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. BULKS SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALSO EXISTS TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE MODES.

..DIAL.. 07/19/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

43599717 43909612 44639492 44419367 43639325 42839348
42339432 41899676 42179908 43319930

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 19, 2:28 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Emmet, Harrison and 12 more8 hr
Jul 19, 5:22 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAllamakee, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Butler, Calhoun and 25 more5 hr
Jul 19, 6:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buchanan and 45 more2 hr
Jul 18, 8:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKeya Paha2 hr
Jul 18, 9:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBoyd, Brown, Cherry, Holt, Keya Paha, Rock6 hr
Jul 18, 11:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoyd, Brown, Cherry, Holt, Keya Paha, Rock88 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2008Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2008Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2008Every mesoscale discussion in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.