Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
314 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK...MAINTAINING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION RESULTED IN LIGHTNING OVER THE UINTA
MOUNTAINS JUST AFTER NOON. THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO IMPACT
WESTERN UTAH TONIGHT HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO DEEPEN TO THE POINT OF
PRODUCING VIRGA AND LIGHTNING. NEW NAM12 REMAINS INSISTENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN VALLEYS AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND MICROBURST WINDS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING
AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IN THE AIRMASS OCCURRING. A WEAK UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST LATER THIS WEEK
WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY DRAW DEEP MOISTURE NORTH TO UTAH AROUND
NEXT WEEKEND.

CHANGES FOR THIS PACKAGE MAINLY WERE TO WARM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AND TO LOWER THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT
THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
NORTHWEST UTAH HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS STILL
A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
BUILDUPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR IS
INDICATING SOME BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF LATE OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF ZONE 435. THE THREAT OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRETCH
FROM FROM SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 420 SOUTHWARD TO THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS OF FIRE ZONE 435 AS THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES THE
STORMS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEVADA. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED DRY LIGHTNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT
IN 420...435 AND 439 BUT UNTIL MIDNIGHT IN ZONE 434.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH IN FIRE
ZONE 440 UNTIL THIS 9 PM MDT EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY...BUT MAY STILL REQUIRE
A WARNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR UTZ005-UTZ016-UTZ019-
     UTZ020.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR UTZ015.

WY...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...GIBSON
FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
911 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2008

UTZ012>014-016-019>021-517-518-231100-
CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-
SOUTHWEST UTAH-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-
SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-
911 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH...
SOUTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST UTAH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY WHICH
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. IN ADDITION...HIGH BASED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF I-15 BY LATE AFTERNOON
WHICH WOULD BRING ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ERRATIC MICROBURST
WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL OVER SPREAD THE AREA BY MID
WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

UTZ001>011-015-WYZ021-231100-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
911 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH...
NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COOL FRONT MOVED INTO NORTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING
MICROBURST WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING ALONG WITH SCATTERED
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY...MAINLY FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED
FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
709 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2008

UTZ002>005-015-230400-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-
SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL UTAH-
709 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2008

HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WEST
DESERT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE WASATCH FRONT AND TOOELE VALLEY
AFTER 8 PM. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR
DUGWAY. SIMILAR GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 PM NEAR THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)