Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
650 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

.UPDATE...
ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 126.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR IN STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/

SHORT TERM...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER TEXAS...300 MB WINDS OF 100 TO 120 KNOTS. DRYLINE LOCATED
FROM SWEETWATER TO WEST OF DEL RIO. COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. LOOKS
LIKE A BUSY NIGHT AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LIFTS OUT WITH
STRONG DYNAMICS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ALSO...SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS WILL STALL DRYLINE NEAR A ABILENE TO SONORA LINE. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA WITH 500 MB WINDS INCREASING TO CLOSE TO 100 KNOTS.
VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE SETTING UP ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF 60 KNOTS AND 0-1KM
VALUES OF AROUND 30 KNOTS. ALSO...CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HAS A
MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND.
SEVERE STORMS A GOOD BET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND COUPLING OF 300 JET WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF CWFA LOOKS GOOD. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS
ACROSS TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH DEFORMATION ZONE FORMING ACROSS THE
CWFA. HAVE LKLY POPS GOING FOR TUESDAY AND CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
LOOKS LIKE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND THEN THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH BY THIS
WEEKEND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY
INCREASE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 50  57  37  67 /  60  60  30   0
SAN ANGELO 	 53  58  38  70 /  60  60  20   0
JUNCTION 	 54  59  36  71 /  80  60  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BROWN-COLEMAN-
CONCHO-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-SAN SABA.

&&

09

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
628 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

TXZ098-180030-
HASKELL TX-
628 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR HASKELL
COUNTY...

AT 626 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RULE...OR ABOUT 11
MILES WEST OF HASKELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HASKELL BY 635 PM CDT
  ROCHESTER BY 645 PM CDT
  OBRIEN BY 650 PM CDT
  WEINERT BY 655 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
635 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

TXZ113-127-180015-
JONES TX-TAYLOR TX-
635 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR JONES AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES...

AT 630 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OVER TUSCOLA...OR ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTH
OF ABILENE...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUFFALO GAP BY 640 PM CDT
  VIEW BY 655 PM CDT
  POTOSI BY 700 PM CDT
  DYESS AFB BY 710 PM CDT
  ABILENE...IMPACT AND TYE BY 715 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

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