Severe Thunderstorm Warning 388, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
331 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A BOUNDARY ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOP AS ML
CAPE OF 1200 TO 2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT IS
LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...HOWEVER WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IN ADDITION TO THIS ACTIVITY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO IOWA.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE
STORM WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST INTO THE
AREA...BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...THE AREA HAS DESTABILIZED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP IN PLACE. THIS HAS CAUSED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INVOF SGF...AND A FEW ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP IN THE JLN AREA AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE EVENTUALLY DYING
OFF. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS...AND MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT BOTH SGF AND JLN WITH THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS LOWERED
CEILINGS WITH THE STORMS...AND POTENTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
ACTIVITY AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT BY AT
LEAST 15Z.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201930-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
230 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
  HIGHWAY 65 THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
  OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND SHOULD REMAIN
  ALONG THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR.

  THIS EVENING...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF AN OSAGE
  BEACH TO WEST PLAINS LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE WITH THESE OF STORMS ALSO.

  DISCUSSION:

  AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
  AFTERNOON. WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
  DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 65. THE
  STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
  DAMAGING WINDS.

  IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
  CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
  FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. THESE STORMS
  WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND
  LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION TO
  THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
  WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
  THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE HALF OF NEXT
  WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND WEST OF AN OSAGE BEACH
 TO WEST PLAINS LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
405 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE SPRINGFIELD        37.24N  93.23W
06/19/2008  M81 MPH          GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
406 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE SPRINGFIELD        37.24N  93.23W
06/19/2008  M81 MPH          GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
412 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE SPRINGFIELD        37.23N 93.25W
06/19/2008                   GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROOF DAMAGE AND DOORS BLOWN IN AT INDUSTRIAL BUILDING AT
            DIVISION AND BELCREST.

&&

GAEDE