Severe Thunderstorm Warning 387, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

MAIN MCS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WAS CENTERED FURTHER WEST THAN LAST
NIGHT AND WAS AFFECTING WESTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS. A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS AS IF
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASED CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE AIM AT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA. HAVE GENERALLY UNDERCUT THE HIGH
MOS POPS FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD DUE TO CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL PERFORMANCE. BEST COVERAGE WILL STILL
LIKELY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SO WILL HAVE MY HIGHEST POPS
IN THE WESTERN CWA.

MAIN SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH RIDGE
BUILDING FURTHER EAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. FLY IN OINTMENT
MAY BE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THE GFS ID BRINGING INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI ON SUNDAY.  HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING TO
MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...THE AREA HAS DESTABALIZED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP IN PLACE. THIS HAS CAUSED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INVOF SGF...AND A FEW ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP IN THE JLN AREA AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE EVENTUALLY DYING
OFF. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS...AND MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT BOTH SGF AND JLN WITH THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS LOWERED
CEILINGS WITH THE STORMS...AND POTENTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
ACTIVITY AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT BY AT
LEAST 15Z.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201930-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
230 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
  HIGHWAY 65 THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
  OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND SHOULD REMAIN
  ALONG THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR.

  THIS EVENING...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF AN OSAGE
  BEACH TO WEST PLAINS LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE WITH THESE OF STORMS ALSO.

  DISCUSSION:

  AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
  AFTERNOON. WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
  DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 65. THE
  STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
  DAMAGING WINDS.

  IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
  CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
  FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. THESE STORMS
  WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND
  LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION TO
  THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
  WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
  THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE HALF OF NEXT
  WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND WEST OF AN OSAGE BEACH
 TO WEST PLAINS LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             1 SE PLEASANT HOPE      37.45N  93.26W
06/19/2008  E1.75 INCH       POLK               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

KARDELL