Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
348 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WAS EXITING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD.
THESE STORMS MAY PERK UP A LITTLE BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S-LOWER
60S...MOST OF THE INSTABILITY WITH THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN ROOTED
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OVER OUR WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. STORMS THAT ARE
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS TIME SHOULD INTENSIFY
AS THEY INTERACT WITH THIS AIRMASS. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THE
TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 7 PM.

THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH ARE STILL ON TAP TO MOVE EAST RAPIDLY
OUT OF THE OZARKS TONIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING
FROM 998MB TO 988 MB FROM 00Z TO 06Z AS IT TRACKS ROUGHLY ALONG
I-70 FROM KC TO ST. LOUIS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
WIND TREND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WIND
SPEEDS UP AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PLAN ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

AFTER A FAIRLY TRANQUIL MONDAY...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
RAMP UP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG MOISTURE RETURN
AND NEAR 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. INSTABILITY LOOKS
PRETTY DECENT WITH MEAN LAYER CAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG HOWEVER
IT APPEARS THAT BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SHEAR TRENDS AND ADJUST HWO WORDING
ACCORDINGLY IF NEEDED.

WILL LINGER SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
ECMWF AND GFS LAG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS A
LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE AND CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW ALSO. AM MODERATELY CONFIDENT IN
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>096-098-101>104.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED SPOTTER ACTIVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
130 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
130 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND
  ISOLATED TORNADOES.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ACROSS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROLLA TO WEST
  PLAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

  FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS
  TO 80 MPH ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
  ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GREATEST
  THREAT WILL ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

  DISCUSSION:

  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER
  THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OZARKS
  FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
  AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS INTERACTS WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
  THE STORM SYSTEM...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
  OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND MOVE RAPIDLY
  NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS.

 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  SUNDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO
  RIVER VALLEY REGION.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
  STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS
  NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH 9 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
529 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             ARMA                    37.54N 94.70W
05/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MTERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
531 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     HAIL             MULBERRY                37.56N 94.62W
05/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MTERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
533 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     TORNADO          6 W BAXTER SPRINGS      37.02N 94.84W
05/10/2008                   CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MTERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
534 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TORNADO          6 W BAXTER SPRINGS      37.02N  94.84W
05/10/2008                   CHEROKEE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
535 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TORNADO          2 NW HALLOWELL          37.20N  95.02W
05/10/2008                   CHEROKEE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN. LARGE FUNNEL CLOUD STILL PRESENT.

&&

DSA

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