Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
127 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED STORMS PRODUCING MAINLY PEA SIZE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST
MESOANALYST DATA FROM SPC SHOWS SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION
UNDERWAY OVER OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INTERACTING WITH
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...EXPECT MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR COUNTY WARNING BY AROUND 2-3 PM. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AROUND 40 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR ANY
DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS WHICH SHOULD MOVE EAST AROUND 30 KNOTS.

TERRY
&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
THIS HAS ALLOWED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE FOG
HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. SLIGHTLY STRONG WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS
HAS LIMITED THE FOG ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. THE FOG SHOULD
QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AS THE SUN RISES AND SOUTHERN WINDS
INCREASE.

TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER COLORADO WILL GET KICKED TO THE EAST TRAILING A COLD
FRONT BEHIND IT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA...SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY. AS A RESULT GULF
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY THIS EVENING. THE AREA WILL
INITIALLY BE FAIRLY CAPPED THIS MORNING AS WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN PLACE ALOFT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ALOFT WEAKENING THE CAP. ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS IN
AN AIR OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR IN PLACE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OVER 50KTS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAKES THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES
OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WHERE A 120KT JET STREAK WILL PUSH INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONG AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RESULTING
IN WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60 AND LOWERS IN THE LOWER 40S. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TO START THE
WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 70S. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL BE SOME WHAT LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA...DUE TO THE
GULF NOT FULLY RECHARGING AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
TODAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION BUT SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WILL CARRY VICINITY TO PREDOMINANT THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS
SHIFT TO WEST AROUND MID EVENING AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL KS MOVES ACROSS THE AIRPORTS.

HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND BACK SIDE OF UPPER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL
GO OPTIMISTIC UNTIL PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER.

TERRY
&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED SPOTTER ACTIVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
130 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
130 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND
  ISOLATED TORNADOES.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ACROSS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROLLA TO WEST
  PLAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

  FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS
  TO 80 MPH ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
  ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GREATEST
  THREAT WILL ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

  DISCUSSION:

  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER
  THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OZARKS
  FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
  AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS INTERACTS WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
  THE STORM SYSTEM...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
  OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND MOVE RAPIDLY
  NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS.

 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  SUNDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO
  RIVER VALLEY REGION.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
  STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS
  NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH 9 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
151 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     HAIL             6 NNW BOLIVAR           37.69N  93.45W
05/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       POLK               MO   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
214 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     HAIL             2 SW VANZANT            36.95N  92.33W
05/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DSA