Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
736 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A MINOR MID LEVEL IMPULSE. INCREASED DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTED SEVERAL
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. APPEARS BEST
AVAILABLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS BEING EXHAUSTED BY ONGOING
CONVECTION. WHILE SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS IS
DECREASING.

HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS INCREASING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS FIRST ROUND
OF CONVECTION HAS DROPPED ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL FUEL A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS...SERIOUS
FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION TONIGHT.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)...

CURRENTLY...WARM FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY FROM
ROUND SPRING TO BOLIVAR TO PITTSBURG KANSAS AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF
THE FRONT...DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S. INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STORM REPORTS OF
QUARTER SIZED HAIL. LOOKING AT 850MB STREAMLINE CONVERGENCE...THE
WRF PROGS SHOW THE BEST PLACEMENT OF THIS CONVERGENCE IN RELATION
TO THE CONVECTION. OVER THE CWA...LAPS SOUNDINGS AT 18Z FOR SGF
SHOWING US BASICALLY UNCAPPED...CAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG AND
ALMOST NO CIN. SO WE ARE PRIME FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN AT ANY
TIME. ONLY INGREDIENT MISSING IS A FORCING MECHANISM TO GET
CONVECTION GOING. PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS...MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST IN OUR
GENERAL DIRECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND FOLLOWED 850MB STREAMLINE CONVERGENCE
AS THIS SEEMS TO WORK WELL FOR A SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE SITUATION
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN AT PRESENT. WRF STREAMLINES SHOW
CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND THEN OVER WESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING.
PENDING ANY ROGUE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY
KICK OFF SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...OR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
MAY MOVE IN FROM KANSAS OR OKLAHOMA...DO BELIEVE THIS IS WHEN THE
SHOW WILL GET GOING. WRF MODEL SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD 850MB JET
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO AROUND
35KTS AROUND 06Z. THIS JET SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT AND
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COMMENCE. FOLLOWING WRF GUIDANCE...PROG SOUNDING
SHOWING PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 1.5
INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING. LONG...SKINNY CAPE PRFILE SUGGESTS
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. SO...THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
RULING OUT SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL...DO BELIEVE THE LARGEST THREAT
IS GOING TO BE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ALONG
THE WARM FRONT.

HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MID MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. USING
HPC QPFS...LOOKING AT PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MAYBE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL ZONES. WITH THESE HIGHLY EFFICIENT THUNDERSTORMS...WOULD
EXPECT SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THIS.
UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WE MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. COLD FRONT ACTUALLY
DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT UNFOLDS BEFORE
ADVERTISING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CWA IN
THE WAKE OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO MISSOURI BY SATURDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.  NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.  A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT IN THE PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING
UP OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  HAVE INTRODUCED SOME POPS FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SPRINGFIELD
AND JOPLIN TERMINAL AREAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VARYING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN PASSING STORMS. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
TO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055-056-066>069-
     077>082-088>096-101>105.

KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
310 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-242015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
310 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
 WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. MODERATE INSTABILITY
 AND WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS
 THE MAIN THREATS FOR ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE.

 MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HEAVY
 RAINFALL AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE
 POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM VERSAILLES TO
 BRANSON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY
 MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
 NORTHERN MISSOURI.

 ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
 DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND
 ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

 THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 5 PM SOUTH AND WEST
 OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA TO CRANE TO GAINESVILLE AFTER 4 PM.
 SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED NORTH OF THIS LINE AFTER 7 PM THIS
 EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
636 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JOPLIN                  37.08N 94.51W
04/23/2008                   JASPER             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            WATER 3 FEET DEEP OVER THE ROAD IN JOPLIN.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
651 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PITTSBURG               37.41N 94.70W
04/23/2008                   CRAWFORD           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN IN PITTSBURG.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     HAIL             2 E SELIGMAN            36.52N 93.90W
04/23/2008  E1.00 INCH       BARRY              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED EAST OF SELIGMAN.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
719 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DEERFIELD               37.84N 94.51W
04/23/2008                   VERNON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE LIMBS DOWN WITH PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
740 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E AURORA              36.97N 93.70W
04/23/2008  E65 MPH          LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            65 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED WITH SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

BARJENBRUCH