Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 240454
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1152 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

MOC015-029-039-043-057-077-085-167-185-213-240502-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0054.000000T0000Z-080424T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENE MO-DADE MO-POLK MO-CEDAR MO-HICKORY MO-ST. CLAIR MO-CAMDEN MO-
BENTON MO-CHRISTIAN MO-TANEY MO-
1152 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CDT FOR BENTON...
CEDAR...CHRISTIAN...DADE...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN...GREENE...
HICKORY...POLK...ST. CLAIR AND TANEY COUNTIES...

ADDITIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL IN POSSIBLE IN TANEY AND EASTERN 
CHRISTIAN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN 
REPLACED BY AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT ON THURSDAY FOR 
THESE TWO COUNTIES.

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3650 9333 3699 9331 3699 9361 3729 9363
      3729 9407 3821 9406 3822 9353 3852 9350
      3854 9307 3790 9304 3790 9321 3742 9319
      3741 9307 3709 9307 3709 9290 3682 9292
      3681 9278 3649 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 180DEG 0KT 3742 9328

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
736 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A MINOR MID LEVEL IMPULSE. INCREASED DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTED SEVERAL
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. APPEARS BEST
AVAILABLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS BEING EXHAUSTED BY ONGOING
CONVECTION. WHILE SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS IS
DECREASING.

HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS INCREASING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS FIRST ROUND
OF CONVECTION HAS DROPPED ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL FUEL A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS...SERIOUS
FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION TONIGHT.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)...

CURRENTLY...WARM FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY FROM
ROUND SPRING TO BOLIVAR TO PITTSBURG KANSAS AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF
THE FRONT...DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S. INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STORM REPORTS OF
QUARTER SIZED HAIL. LOOKING AT 850MB STREAMLINE CONVERGENCE...THE
WRF PROGS SHOW THE BEST PLACEMENT OF THIS CONVERGENCE IN RELATION
TO THE CONVECTION. OVER THE CWA...LAPS SOUNDINGS AT 18Z FOR SGF
SHOWING US BASICALLY UNCAPPED...CAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG AND
ALMOST NO CIN. SO WE ARE PRIME FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN AT ANY
TIME. ONLY INGREDIENT MISSING IS A FORCING MECHANISM TO GET
CONVECTION GOING. PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS...MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST IN OUR
GENERAL DIRECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND FOLLOWED 850MB STREAMLINE CONVERGENCE
AS THIS SEEMS TO WORK WELL FOR A SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE SITUATION
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN AT PRESENT. WRF STREAMLINES SHOW
CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND THEN OVER WESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING.
PENDING ANY ROGUE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY
KICK OFF SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...OR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
MAY MOVE IN FROM KANSAS OR OKLAHOMA...DO BELIEVE THIS IS WHEN THE
SHOW WILL GET GOING. WRF MODEL SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD 850MB JET
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO AROUND
35KTS AROUND 06Z. THIS JET SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT AND
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COMMENCE. FOLLOWING WRF GUIDANCE...PROG SOUNDING
SHOWING PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 1.5
INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING. LONG...SKINNY CAPE PRFILE SUGGESTS
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. SO...THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
RULING OUT SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL...DO BELIEVE THE LARGEST THREAT
IS GOING TO BE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ALONG
THE WARM FRONT.

HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MID MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. USING
HPC QPFS...LOOKING AT PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MAYBE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL ZONES. WITH THESE HIGHLY EFFICIENT THUNDERSTORMS...WOULD
EXPECT SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THIS.
UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WE MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. COLD FRONT ACTUALLY
DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT UNFOLDS BEFORE
ADVERTISING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CWA IN
THE WAKE OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO MISSOURI BY SATURDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.  NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.  A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT IN THE PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING
UP OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  HAVE INTRODUCED SOME POPS FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SPRINGFIELD
AND JOPLIN TERMINAL AREAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VARYING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN PASSING STORMS. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
TO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055-056-066>069-
     077>082-088>096-101>105.

KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
745 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-250045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
745 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

 THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH
 FLOODING...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL TO THE SIZE
 OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS
 AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THE STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED WEST OF
 A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO VERSAILLES. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
 FLOODING WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY
 MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
 NORTHERN MISSOURI.

 ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
 DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND
 ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

 THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
740 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E AURORA              36.97N 93.70W
04/23/2008  E65 MPH          LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            65 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED WITH SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
749 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AURORA                  36.97N 93.72W
04/23/2008                   LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE IN THE CITY OF AURORA WITH DEBRIS
            ON HIGHWAY 39.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
805 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

MOZ067-240130-
ST. CLAIR MO-
805 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

AT 804 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSCEOLA TO
MONTROSE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF EL
DORADO SPRINGS TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
36 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  OSCEOLA BY 810 PM CDT.
  LOWRY CITY BY 815 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF ICONIUM IS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
812 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASH GROVE               37.32N 93.58W
04/23/2008                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A BARN BLOWN OVER NEAR ASH GROVE.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
828 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

MOZ101-240200-
MCDONALD MO-
828 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MCDONALD COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 823 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH WEST CITY TO
GRAVETTE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PINEVILLE TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF PINEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 42
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LANAGAN BY 835 PM CDT.
  ANDERSON AND PINEVILLE BY 840 PM CDT.
  GOODMAN BY 850 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF POWELL AND ROCKY COMFORT ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE
STORMS.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
856 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND GST     PLEASANT HOPE           37.46N 93.27W
04/23/2008  E50 MPH          POLK               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            50 MPH WIND GUSTS IN PLEASANT HOPE.

&&

BARJENBRUCH