Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 241119
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
616 AM CDT THU APR 24 2008

MOC229-241400-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0056.000000T0000Z-080424T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WRIGHT MO-
616 AM CDT THU APR 24 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
WRIGHT COUNTY...

AT 608 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN 
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS ENDED...RUNOFF FROM 
THE HEAVY RAINFALL WAS NOT COMPLETE WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES 
OF AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS THIS MORNING. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATED THAT LOCALLY ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL OCCURRED 
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA SINCE 3 AM. AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF INCH OF 
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WARNED AREA THROUGH 8 AM. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO 
OCCUR. 

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3708 9264 3748 9265 3747 9226 3726 9226
      3725 9225 3714 9225 3714 9226 3707 9226
TIME...MOT...LOC 1116Z 180DEG 0KT 3724 9235

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 241333
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
833 AM CDT THU APR 24 2008

MOC229-241343-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0056.000000T0000Z-080424T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WRIGHT MO-
833 AM CDT THU APR 24 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WRIGHT COUNTY...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3708 9264 3748 9265 3747 9226 3726 9226
      3725 9225 3714 9225 3714 9226 3707 9226
TIME...MOT...LOC 1333Z 180DEG 0KT 3724 9235

$$

JLT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1001 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

CONVECTION HAD WEAKENED AT LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER PERSISTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. REGIONAL RADAR EVEN DEPICTS A COUPLE
OF MESOSCALE VORTICIES. ONE OVER SOUTH CENTAL KANAS AND THE OTHER
OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS SUPPORTED BY
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MESOSCALE VORTICIES AS THEY CAN ENHANCE RAINFALL
RATES AND AMOUNTS. THE

LATEST MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL EVOLVE FROM EXISTING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER EXPECT CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TRAINING CELLS AND EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE SPRING RIVER AND WHITE RIVER BASINS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)...

CURRENTLY...WARM FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY FROM
ROUND SPRING TO BOLIVAR TO PITTSBURG KANSAS AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF
THE FRONT...DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S. INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STORM REPORTS OF
QUARTER SIZED HAIL. LOOKING AT 850MB STREAMLINE CONVERGENCE...THE
WRF PROGS SHOW THE BEST PLACEMENT OF THIS CONVERGENCE IN RELATION
TO THE CONVECTION. OVER THE CWA...LAPS SOUNDINGS AT 18Z FOR SGF
SHOWING US BASICALLY UNCAPPED...CAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG AND
ALMOST NO CIN. SO WE ARE PRIME FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN AT ANY
TIME. ONLY INGREDIENT MISSING IS A FORCING MECHANISM TO GET
CONVECTION GOING. PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS...MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST IN OUR
GENERAL DIRECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND FOLLOWED 850MB STREAMLINE CONVERGENCE
AS THIS SEEMS TO WORK WELL FOR A SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE SITUATION
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN AT PRESENT. WRF STREAMLINES SHOW
CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND THEN OVER WESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING.
PENDING ANY ROGUE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY
KICK OFF SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...OR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
MAY MOVE IN FROM KANSAS OR OKLAHOMA...DO BELIEVE THIS IS WHEN THE
SHOW WILL GET GOING. WRF MODEL SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD 850MB JET
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO AROUND
35KTS AROUND 06Z. THIS JET SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT AND
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COMMENCE. FOLLOWING WRF GUIDANCE...PROG SOUNDING
SHOWING PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 1.5
INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING. LONG...SKINNY CAPE PRFILE SUGGESTS
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. SO...THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
RULING OUT SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL...DO BELIEVE THE LARGEST THREAT
IS GOING TO BE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ALONG
THE WARM FRONT.

HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MID MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. USING
HPC QPFS...LOOKING AT PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MAYBE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL ZONES. WITH THESE HIGHLY EFFICIENT THUNDERSTORMS...WOULD
EXPECT SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THIS.
UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WE MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. COLD FRONT ACTUALLY
DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT UNFOLDS BEFORE
ADVERTISING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CWA IN
THE WAKE OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO MISSOURI BY SATURDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.  NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.  A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT IN THE PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING
UP OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  HAVE INTRODUCED SOME POPS FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SPRINGFIELD
AND JOPLIN TERMINAL AREAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VARYING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN PASSING STORMS. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
TO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055-056-066>069-
     077>082-088>096-101>105.

KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1042 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-250345-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1042 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

 THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
 FLOODING WILL AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
 OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
 WILL AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF A FORT SCOTT KANSAS TO HARTVILLE
 MISSOURI LINE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
 40 MPH MAY ALSO AFFECT FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY
 MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
 NORTHERN MISSOURI.

 ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
 DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND
 ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

 THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1057 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E PURDY               36.82N 93.86W
04/23/2008                   BARRY              MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            THE MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REPORTS THAT
            STATE ROUTE C BETWEEN PURDY AND MCDOWELL IS CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING ALONG THE FLAT CREEK.

&&

WISE