River Flood Warning 8, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PST THU NOV 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL GIVE PERIODS OF RAIN AND WIND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN CONTINUES. AROUND AN INCH HAS FALLEN IN THE
LOWLANDS WITH TWO TO FOUR IN THE MOUNTAINS. FAST RESPONDING RIVERS
ARE GOING TO FLOOD TONIGHT. WARNINGS ARE ALREADY OUT FOR THE
BOGACHIEL AND SKOKOMISH AND TOLT...WARNINGS FOR THE STILLAGUAMISH
AND POSSIBLY A FEW OTHERS ARE SOON TO FOLLOW. FREEZING LEVEL IN THE
00Z KUIL SOUNDING WAS 9700 FEET SO VIRTUALLY ALL PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE FOOT OR SNOW OF FRESH SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS IS RAPIDLY MELTING...ACCORDING TO NWAC DATA.

IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS AND
CASCADES WILL FLOOD AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT LEWIS COUNTY RIVERS. MODELS TEND TO KEEP
THE RAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE CWA. HOWEVER THAT MAY
BE CUTTING IT A BIT TOO FINE AND IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO ADD LEWIS
COUNTY TO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.

NO CHANGE TO THE GENERAL PATTERN AND FORECAST. CONVEYOR BELT RAIN
KEEPS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS SATURDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MORE SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR MON
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OR WEAK UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
THEN MON NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK EXPECT A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS TO GIVE PERIODS OF RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
TO THE AREA. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WILL BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE AS
A 160-180 KT 300 MB JET PLOWS SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA AT FREQUENT
INTERVALS. AS A RESULT WILL BROAD BRUSH THE WORDED FORECAST. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BAND WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO IMPROVE ABOVE MVFR UNTIL SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ONLY SPORADICALLY REACHED THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SURFACE GRADIENTS HAVE RELAXED SOMEWHAT AND
PROFILER DATA SHOWS WINDS IN THE 2000 TO 5000 FOOT LAYER GRADUALLY
EASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
SERVE TO ENSURE THAT CEILINGS AND SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN POOR.

KSEA...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
MVFR...AND OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS. REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 8 TO 12
KNOTS...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING HIGHER THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A STALLED FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
GRADIENTS HAVE RELAXED SOMEWHAT...AND THE PREVIOUS SET OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPIRED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST.
WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS AGAIN LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE
COAST FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A NEW
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE
INLAND WATERS.

27

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT
AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS
HARBOR BAR.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE ENHANCED AFD PLEASE VISIT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATESTWEBAFD.HTML (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
515 PM PST THU NOV 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WNW SEKIU             48.28N 124.37W
11/06/2008  M3.70 INCH       CLALLAM            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3.70 INCHES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.

&&

DDAMICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
637 PM PST THU NOV 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ELWHA                   48.06N 123.59W
11/06/2008  E1.40 INCH       CLALLAM            WA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            1.40 INCHES OF RAIN RECEIVED SINCE 8 AM THIS MORNING AT
            THE ELWHA DAM.

&&

DDAMICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
840 PM PST THU NOV 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NE BLACK DIAMOND      47.35N 121.93W
11/06/2008  M2.00 INCH       KING               WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT IN CUMBERLAND.

&&

DDAMICO