River Flood Warning 16, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
925 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS AND HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORT
BURST OF RAIN ON SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE OLYMPICS. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA AND WEAKENS. STRONG WEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL BRING A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOIST WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT NEAR 132W APPROACHES
THE AREA. 06Z GFS/12Z NAM HAVE THE COLD FRONT POSITION PINNED DOWN
WELL PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. NAM/WRF-GFS PRECIP PROGS SHOW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AREAS SHIFTING N THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD GIVE
THE SE OLYMPICS AND CENTRAL CASCADES-SNOQUALMIE BASIN A SHORT
RESPITE.

GFS/NAM AGREE WELL ON FROPA OVER THE OLYMPICS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z
TONIGHT AND OVER PUGET SOUND SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...WERE NOT
QUITE DONE YET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE BACK-BENT OCCLUSION
WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 140W. MODELS BRING THIS FEATURE
TO THE OLYMPICS AROUND 18Z SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT. FREEZING LEVEL WAS 9800 FEET AT
QUILLAYUTE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 9000 FEET UNTIL
AFTER FROPA LATE TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO AROUND 7000 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THEN 6000 FEET ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER W WA SATURDAY EVENING AS IT IS
FILLING AND WEAKENING. GFS SHOWS RESIDUAL SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOOKING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES IN BEHIND THE LOW.
NAM IS A LOT DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR SUNDAY BUT DOES SHOW SOME
SHOWERS ON MONDAY. KAM

.LONG TERM...GFS HAS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. A STRONG WESTERLY JETSTREAM SETS UP OVER THE NE
PACIFIC NEXT WEEK AND THE GFS DRIVES THE NEXT COLD FRONT AT THE AREA
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT-COLD FRONT PAIR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
NATURALLY WITH THIS FAST ZONAL PATTERN...TIMING REMAINS COMPLETELY
UNCERTAIN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON EACH SYSTEM FOR POTENTIALLY
STRONG WINDS. CURRENT BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND
BREEZY LOOKS GOOD.  KAM

&&

.AVIATION...HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY OVER THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. FURTHER
SOUTH...RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY BUT MAY LET UP THE INTENSITY.
AM THINKING THAT INCREASING SE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY
OCCASIONALLY CAUSE CIGS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM KPAE SOUTH TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

KSEA...SE GRADIENTS...OR A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD KEEP PREVAILING CIGS IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY...WHILE A LETUP IN RAINFALL INTENSITY ALLOWS VSBYS TO
RISE TO 5-6SM OR GREATER. 12Z NAM SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY 925 MB WINDS
(ARND FL020) PEAKING FROM 18Z-21Z NEAR 40 KTS...THEN FALLING BACK TO
A 25-30 KT FROM 00Z THROUGH THIS EVENING.       HANER

&&

.MARINE...A 995-999 MB LOW CENTER WILL GRADUALLY AMBLE FROM 45N 140W
THIS MORNING TO JUST OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND ON SAT AFTERNOON. SE
GRADIENTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN WA WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS
IN TYPICAL E/SE PRONE LOCATIONS. PUSHED OFF ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT
WINDS OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR AS OFFSHORE PRESSURE FALLS FAVOR LIGHT
NE WINDS THERE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...MAYBE LONGER. WILL BE
LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
ENTRANCE AS SE GRADIENTS PEAK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CALM DOWN
TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER SPLITS/STRETCHES AND SINKS SOUTH
OFF THE WA COAST.       HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE ENHANCED AFD PLEASE VISIT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATESTWEBAFD.HTML (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
835 AM PST FRI NOV 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW BELFAIR           47.43N 122.89W
11/07/2008  M4.87 INCH       MASON              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4.87 INCHES OF RAIN IN PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

HANER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
847 AM PST FRI NOV 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W TACOMA              47.26N 122.53W
11/07/2008  M3.26 INCH       PIERCE             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3.26 INCHES BETWEEN NOON 11/6 AND 8 AM TODAY.

&&

DDAMICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
949 AM PST FRI NOV 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW FEDERAL WAY       47.32N 122.36W
11/07/2008  M2.59 INCH       KING               WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.59 INCHES RAINFALL TOTAL. 30 HR TOTAL FROM MIDNIGHT
            11/6 THROUGH 6AM THIS MORNING.

&&

DDAMICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1000 AM PST FRI NOV 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 AM     DENSE FOG        1 ESE ANACORTES         48.49N 122.60W
11/07/2008                   SKAGIT             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ELEVATION 300 FT. VISIBILITY 75 YARDS OR LESS.

&&

DDAMICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1012 AM PST FRI NOV 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1011 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N CARNATION           47.69N 121.91W
11/07/2008  M2.16 INCH       KING               WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.16 INCHES IN LAST 24 HOURS.

&&

DDAMICO

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